Listing | Bullet Finance

Author | Wu Lei

Editor | Dan Zong

Graphic Designer | Xing Jing

Reviewer | Song Wen

Since 2021, the real estate market has experienced dramatic changes, and a new competitive landscape is accelerating formation.

When the “Three Red Lines” policy was announced at the end of August 2020, only 5 of the TOP 30 real estate companies were in the “green zone.” According to Huachuang Securities’ data, these five companies were Poly Developments, China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, Gemdale Group, and China Merchants Shekou.

Just five years later, the fates of these companies have diverged: state-owned enterprises have expanded against the trend thanks to financing and credit advantages, securing top positions; while Gemdale Group, which lost its “safety cushion,” has rapidly fallen behind under the dual pressures of deleveraging and declining sales.

CRIC data shows that by the end of 2025, Poly Developments, China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, and China Merchants Shekou will all rank in the industry TOP 5, while Gemdale Group’s sales scale is only 30 billion yuan, blocking it outside the top 20.

As a former member of the “Big Four” “Zhao Bao Wan Jin” (a nickname for top real estate firms), can Gemdale Group still make it into the top tier of developers in the future?

1. Sales Revenue Continues to Decline, Only 30 Billion Yuan in 2025

In fact, Gemdale Group is an established real estate company.

In 1988, Shenzhen Shangbu District Industrial Village Construction Service Company was officially established, mainly responsible for unified development and construction of Shenzhen Shangbu District’s industrial villages. Later, the company was renamed Gemdale Industrial Development Corporation, and in 1993, it began real estate operations as a state-owned enterprise affiliated with Futian District, Shenzhen.

Three years later (1996), based on the original Gemdale Industrial Development Corporation, it was reorganized and established as Gemdale Group. At that time, the Shenzhen Futian District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau was the largest shareholder, holding 49%.

Subsequently, the Shenzhen Futian District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau transferred all its shares in Gemdale Group to its subordinate company, Shenzhen Futian Investment Development Company (now renamed Shenzhen Futian Investment Holding Co., Ltd., hereafter: Futian Investment). Currently, Futian Investment remains the second-largest shareholder of Gemdale Group.

With state backing, Gemdale Group, along with China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Vanke, was once known as the “Four Big Kings” of the industry, a “fierce warrior” in the real estate market.

Over more than 30 years of turbulent development, real estate companies have experienced wild growth, rapid acceleration, and brutal “reshuffling.” During this period, Gemdale Group has had moments of “falling behind” as well as high points— in 2021, its sales reached 286.71 billion yuan, ranking 11th in CRIC’s industry list; in 2022, it again entered the top 10 alongside “Zhao Bao Wan.”

Since then, Gemdale Group has turned downward, with sales plummeting. In 2024, its contracted sales fell below 100 billion yuan, down to 68.51 billion yuan, nearly halving from 153.55 billion yuan in 2023.

(图 / Gemdale Group Announcement)

On one side, the pressure of deleveraging under heavy debt; on the other, sluggish sales. Under this double squeeze, Gemdale Group has suspended land acquisitions in the open market since June 2023, only resuming in 2025 with replenishments in Hangzhou, Shanghai, and other cities.

At the 2024 earnings conference, Gemdale Group Chairman Xu Jiajun stated that the main reason for returning to land auctions was the easing of debt pressure as the company repaid its public debt. Additionally, the relaxed industry policies in 2024 helped restore overall market confidence and demand, with signs of recovery in some core cities, prompting the company to restart land acquisitions in key markets.

Gemdale Group is trying to regroup and get back on track, but the reality is less optimistic. In 2025, its contracted sales plummeted 56.18% year-on-year to only 30.02 billion yuan, roughly one-tenth of its peak in 2021.

(图 / Gemdale Group Announcement)

According to CRIC and Centaline data, Gemdale Group’s contracted sales in 2025 even lag behind struggling Country Garden by 10.2 billion yuan, dropping to 23rd in industry ranking.

Entering 2026, Gemdale Group faced a tough start. In February 2026, its contracted sales were only 630 million yuan, down 77.50% year-on-year; in the first two months, total contracted sales reached 1.85 billion yuan, down 63.37%.

So why is Gemdale Group’s sales so sluggish? Is it due to land reserve layout, or are there strategic issues? How are the projects replenished since 2025 being disposed of? Are there specific measures to boost sales and accelerate destocking?

We attempted to contact Gemdale Group for insights, but as of press time, no response has been received.

2. Expected Loss Exceeds 10 Billion Yuan, Ling Ke Leaves Early

The “hidden pain” caused by sluggish sales is gradually appearing in Gemdale Group’s financial reports.

On January 23, this year, Gemdale Group announced its 2025 performance forecast—projecting a net loss attributable to parent company of 11.1 to 13.5 billion yuan, with net loss after non-recurring gains and losses of 10 to 12.4 billion yuan.

(图 / Gemdale Group Announcement)

Compared to the 6.1 billion yuan net loss attributable to parent and 4.4 billion yuan net loss after non-recurring items in 2024, the 2025 losses are doubled, setting a record high since the company’s listing in 2001.

(图 / Gemdale Group Financial Report)

Gemdale Group explained that the profit decline was due to recent decreases in sales scale, reduced project carry-over area, and lower operating income.

Additionally, the company has dynamically adjusted its operational and sales strategies based on market conditions, increasing destocking efforts, which led to some inventories having a realizable net value below cost, prompting provisions for inventory impairment and credit losses based on prudence.

Before Gemdale Group turned into a loss-making situation, management turbulence had already begun.

On the evening of October 16, 2023, Gemdale Group announced that Ling Ke resigned from the positions of director, chairman, and member of the strategic committee due to health reasons.

It is reported that Ling Ke previously served as head of the business department at Shenzhen Futian Foreign Trade Company, and after joining Gemdale Group, he served as chairman for 25 years. Like Lei Jun at Xiaomi or Wang Jianlin at Wanda, Ling Ke was the “soul figure” of Gemdale Group.

His departure caused a stir. The day after the announcement (October 17), Gemdale Group’s stock opened lower and hit the daily limit down, with multiple domestic bonds also falling sharply, some by over 20%. That day, Gemdale Group issued an emergency statement reiterating that Ling Ke’s departure was due to “health reasons” and emphasizing that the company’s operations remained normal.

Soon after, the largest shareholder, Fude Life Insurance, and the second-largest shareholder, Futian Investment, sent representatives to take control of Gemdale Group. In March 2024, former Gemdale Secretary Xu Jiajun was elected as the new chairman, with Ji Tong from Futian Investment serving as vice chairman.

The following month (April 2024), Fude Life Insurance’s Xu Wenyuan, Xu Qian, and Li Ronghui officially joined the board as non-independent directors. The veteran Huang Juncan, once seen as Ling Ke’s successor, resigned as CEO, and Wei Chuanjun stepped down as CFO, both replaced by Li Ronghui.

On the last day of 2025, Gemdale Group announced that Ji Tong resigned from director and vice chairman positions due to work changes, and would no longer hold any company roles. In January 2026, Yang Yuqiu, chairman of Futian Investment, joined the Gemdale Group board.

Objectively, the new management team may have more seasoned experience, but their familiarity with the real estate industry may not match that of long-time industry veterans like Ling Ke or Huang Juncan. Data shows that since 2024, Gemdale Group has not yet recovered from losses, with cumulative net losses attributable to parent exceeding 17 billion yuan over two years.

How will the new management team, formed two years ago, address this huge loss? Who should be responsible? Is there a timeline for turning losses around? If losses persist long-term, are there concerns about further cash flow pressures? We attempted to get insights from Gemdale Group, but no response was received as of press time.

3. Insurance Capital “Trapped,” Funding Gap Exceeds 13 Billion Yuan

During the peak of the real estate boom, Gemdale Group was also favored by capital.

Between 2013 and 2014, Fude Life Insurance, Anbang Insurance, and its subsidiary Anbang Life (collectively “the Anbang group”) repeatedly increased their holdings of Gemdale Group shares in the secondary market.

According to incomplete statistics by Bullet Finance, from January 2013 to May 2014, Fude Life Insurance bought at least 1.135 billion shares of Gemdale Group, costing about 8.4 billion yuan.

(图 / Gemdale Group Announcement)

From December 2013 to December 2014, Anbang Insurance and Anbang Life (later part of “the Anbang group”) increased their holdings by over 600 million shares, with average prices generally above 6 yuan per share.

(图 / Gemdale Group Announcement)

By the end of 2014, Fude Life Insurance held 29.99% of Gemdale Group, and the Anbang group held 20%, making them the top two shareholders, surpassing founder Futian Investment.

The keen “the Anbang group” quickly withdrew as the real estate market entered a downward phase. Starting in 2021, they began frequent disposals, gradually exiting the top ten shareholders of Gemdale.

There were rumors that Fude Life Insurance also planned to transfer its Gemdale shares. Shortly after Ling Ke’s resignation as chairman in October 2023, there were reports that Fude Life Insurance intended to sell 6 billion yuan worth of Gemdale shares to Shenzhen Investment Holdings, but Shenzhen Investment quickly issued a statement denying the rumor and reported it to the police.

Now, Fude Life Insurance is “trapped.” As of the third quarter of 2025, it held 1.347 billion shares of Gemdale Group. Based on the closing price of 2.95 yuan per share on March 20, 2026, these shares are worth about 40 billion yuan, a stark contrast to the over 8 billion yuan spent during the initial buy-in.

However, it is noteworthy that after the two major insurers became shareholders, Gemdale Group’s dividend payout ratio soared, sharing in the real estate dividend.

Wind data shows that from 2015 to 2021, Gemdale Group paid a total of about 19.2 billion yuan in dividends, with annual payout ratios exceeding 30%. Before 2015, the payout ratio never exceeded 20%.

(图 / Wind)

But after long-term high dividends and the peak debt repayment period, cash flow safety has been somewhat squeezed.

In December 2023, Gemdale Group transferred a 51% stake in Shenzhen Gemdale Xinsa Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. to Futian Investment, raising 3.251 billion yuan.

But this is still a drop in the bucket. As of the third quarter of 2025, Gemdale Group’s cash and cash equivalents stood at 14.34 billion yuan, with short-term loans of 426 million yuan and non-current liabilities due within one year totaling 27.858 billion yuan, totaling about 28.284 billion yuan in short-term debt. Roughly calculated, the company’s short-term funding gap is about 13.9 billion yuan.

(图 / Gemdale Group Financial Report)

Moreover, Gemdale Group is losing its “self-sustaining” ability. In the first three quarters of 2025, its operating cash flow was negative 1.468 billion yuan, directly turning from positive to negative. In the current environment where “cash flow preservation” is key, the pressure on Gemdale Group’s capital chain is evident.

Looking back, after falling behind, Gemdale Group briefly returned to the industry TOP 10, then again faced sharp sales declines and profit losses. This time, the responsibility to steer Gemdale back on track has shifted from Ling Ke to Xu Jiajun.

The main image in the article is from Gemdale Group’s official website.