Dow Jones Futures Fall After Trump Iran Comments Lift Market; Oil Prices Dip

Dow Jones futures fell slightly early Friday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Oil prices fell but were off overnight lows.

FedEx (FDX) and Planet Labs (PL) surged on earnings. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) dived after U.S. prosecutors charged key executives with smuggling Nvidia AI chips into China.

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The stock market closed mixed Thursday thanks to a late afternoon rebound as oil prices turned lower amid comments from President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Asked about ground forces in the Mideast, President Trump said he is “not putting troops anywhere.” Meanwhile, Netanyahu said that Iran can “no longer enrich uranium” or manufacture ballistic missiles.

One could read those statements and see a path toward Trump declaring victory and ending hostilities, hoping Iran doesn’t continue to threaten Strait of Hormuz shipping. The alternative, forcibly securing the Strait, would be a lengthy process that could involve significant boots on the ground.

Israel said it would stop attacks on Iranian energy, but Iran continued attacks on Gulf energy sites.

Five Below (FIVE) surged to a new high on earnings. Meanwhile, server-and-storage giant Dell Technologies (DELL), chip-equipment play Nova (NVMI) and hard-drive maker Seagate Technology (STX) flashed buy signals.

Micron Technology (MU) fell despite blowout earnings and guidance, though it did come well off lows. Nvidia (NVDA) dipped but held key support. Tesla (TSLA) slid to six-month lows amid several negative headlines.

Nvidia stock and Dell are on Leaderboard. Dell stock is on SwingTrader. Five Below stock and Nova are on the IBD 50. Micron stock is on the IBD Big Cap 20. Five Below was Thursday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.

Stocks Break, But Jump Late As Trump Mulls ‘Winding Down’ Iran War End

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.2% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures lost 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.4%.

U.S. crude oil prices fell more than 1% to nearly $94 a barrel but off overnight losses around $93.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.3%, near multimonth highs. U.K. bond yields continue to soar on inflation concerns.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Super Micro Dives As U.S. Accuses Execs Of Smuggling Nvidia Chips To China

FedEx, Planet Labs Earnings

FedEx beat fiscal Q3 views. The shipping giant jumped in overnight trade. FedEx stock rose 1.8% to 356.11 in Thursday’s regular session, holding the 50-day line. A solid bounce, perhaps above the 21-day, would offer an entry.

Planet Labs topped fiscal Q4 forecasts, with the satellite imagery firm vaulted higher in extended action. PL stock reversed sharply higher on Thursday, up  8.7% to 26.96. Planet Labs is working a 27.57 buy point from a cup-with-handle base.

Stock Market

The stock market tumbled Thursday morning, with the Nasdaq finally undercutting recent lows, ending its market rally attempt. It also undercut its late November lows.

However, stocks rebounded late afternoon as crude oil prices slashed gains as the Trump and Netanyahu comments raised Iran war hopes. Keep in mind that Trump has made explicit statements multiple times that the Iran war was almost over, only to quickly signal that the fight could continue for weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% in Thursday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index lost 0.3%, joining the Dow and Nasdaq below its 200-day line. The Nasdaq composite also declined 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 rallied 0.7%, still holding its 200-day.

Micron stock fell 3.8% despite blowout earnings and guidance. Shares did bounce well off their 21-day line and are still up for the week. Nvidia stock declined 1%, just holding its  200-day line. It still wouldn’t take much to see NVDA stock to regain the 50-day line and start looking actionable.

U.S. crude oil prices had another up-and-down session, topping $99 a barrel ultimately closing down 0.2% to $96.14. At 4 p.m. ET, U.S. oil prices were just under $95 vs. about $98.50 a barrel 24 hours earlier.

Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, rose 1.2% to $108.65 but that’s after surging as high as $119.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.28% after briefly hitting a seven-month high of 4.33%.

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ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) edged up 0.1%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 0.3%. Nvidia and Micron stock are big SMH positions.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 0.5% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) gained 1.4%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) slumped 2.5%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) bounced 1.6% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) declined 0.35%.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) gave up 0.7%, with FedEx stock a member. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose a fraction.

Best Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch

Stocks Showing Strength

Five Below stock surged 10.7% to 235.17, rebounding from near the 50-day line to clear a very short consolidation. The specialty discounter rallied on strong earnings and upbeat guidance. FIVE was actionable as it broke a downtrend Thursday morning, but is now 13.6% above its 50-day line.

Dell stock reversed higher, closing up 5.1% to 156.80, back above a 153.72 cup-with-handle buy point, according to MarketSurge.

Seagate stock initially fell with Micron on Thursday morning, but reversed higher from the 21-day and 10-week lines, closing up 6.8% to 434.60, flashing an early entry. STX stock is on track to have a consolidation with a 459.84 buy point after Friday.

Nova stock gained 3.1% to 380.24, rebounding off the 50-day line. Shares are actionable from that level, with 507.27 as the consolidation buy point. Several other chip-equipment makers are trying to bounce from their 50-day lines, including Lam Research (LRCX).

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock fell 3.2% to 380.24, now clearly below its 200-day moving average. Shares undercut their March 9 and Nov. 14 lows to hit their worst levels since late November, when the EV giant was blasting out of a base.

On Thursday, the NHTSA stepped up a Tesla Full Self-Driving probe in bad visibility conditions such as sun glare or fog. Uber (UBER) announced a $1.25 billion investment into Rivian (RIVN) as part of yet another self-driving alliance for the ride-hailing giant. Chinese EV maker Xiaomi (XIACY) formally launched its revamped SU7 sedan, a strong rival to the Tesla Model 3 in China.

What To Do Now

While Thursday’s intraday bounce was nice, the stock market is still at 2026 lows, still highly dependent on oil prices and Iran war headlines. If all a bull market needs was an intraday rally off lows, we would have had dozens of confirmed uptrends this year.

Investors should look for sustained strength, which may require some clarity and finality to the Iran war. That could come soon, or may be weeks or months away.

It’s a time to be largely in cash.

But definitely work on watchlists, paying attention to stocks with strong relative strength.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson  for stock market updates and more.

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