Hexun Investment Advisor Feng Lushun: What's Next for Commercial Space?

On March 23, Hexun Investment Advisor Feng Lushun stated that commercial spaceflight experienced a gap-down today. Does this gap suggest an accelerated top? Let’s analyze it through volume and price. First, let’s see how this decline started. During the previous upward wave, the stock price hit a new all-time high, and trading volume also reached a new high. We call this pattern “sky-high volume meets sky-high price.” After such volume and price peaks, the subsequent downtrend is usually driven by major players offloading. I drew a horizontal line at the midpoint of the opening price of that downward candle. As long as the price can’t break above this line, all rebounds are opportunities to exit. After a rebound, the next step is a large-cycle pullback, specifically to the 5-month moving average. Now, it has already fallen below the 5-month line. Once below, it needs to form a bottom between the 5-month and 10-month lines. Historically, after breaking below the 5-month line, each time it hits the 10-month line, a long lower shadow appears, indicating support from funds below, as the large cycle is being retested, retail investors are selling, and institutions are entering. Now, it is between the 5-month and 10-month lines, a zone where a bottom is likely to form, but only if the small-cycle trend improves. After the large cycle retests the 5-month line, on the small cycle side, the 5-day moving average must cross above the 10-day moving average, and the MACD should turn red. To achieve this pattern, a large bullish candle that halts the decline must appear, and this candle must close above the 5-day moving average. If it remains below the 5-day line, the 5-day moving average will never cross above the 10-day, and rebounds will only be minor. Currently, it has moved away from the 5-day line and formed a gap, making a rebound likely. After the market dropped to 3850 points today, a rebound is expected, but the key is how strong it will be. I predict today’s rebound won’t be very strong. Tomorrow is a critical day; I hope a bullish candle appears to halt the decline and break above the 5-day line. That would stabilize the situation; otherwise, it remains uncertain.

(Edited by: Zhao Yanping HF094)

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