US Stock Preview | Major Stock Index Futures Gains Narrow, Iran Denies Talks with US

1. On March 23 (Monday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures rose after Trump signaled a five-day ceasefire, but the gains narrowed after Iran denied the report. As of press time, Dow futures up 1.76%, S&P 500 futures up 1.71%, Nasdaq futures up 1.63%.

2. As of press time, Germany’s DAX index rose 1.33%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.12%, France’s CAC 40 index rose 1.01%, and Europe’s Stoxx 50 index rose 1.57%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 6.65% to $91.70 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 6.16% to $99.86 per barrel.

Iran denies holding talks with the US. US President Donald Trump stated that over the past two days, the US and Iran held “very good, productive” talks aimed at resolving hostilities in the Middle East, suggesting tensions may ease. Trump posted on Truth Social that he had instructed the Department of Defense to delay any military strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, awaiting the outcome of ongoing negotiations. However, reports indicate Iranian officials refuted US claims of progress, denying any communication with Washington and describing recent developments as US retreat. Iranian official media and diplomatic channels say they have had no direct or indirect contact with Trump or US officials. Trump’s post dramatically shifted market risk sentiment. Stock index futures surged, US Treasury yields plummeted, and oil prices declined. But after Iran’s denial, these market fluctuations eased.

Federal Reserve rate hike expectations dramatically return: oil surge pushes October rate hike probability to 35%. The Fed’s rate outlook has reversed sharply, with short-term US Treasury yields diverging amid rising oil prices. Federal funds futures now show a 35% chance of at least a 25 basis point hike after the October FOMC meeting. Just a month ago, markets were betting on a 50 basis point cut with a 35% probability. The two-year US Treasury yield (US2Y) rebounded above 3.9%, reaching the highest since July. Previously in July, weak employment data caused a sharp decline in the front end of the yield curve, initiating a steady seven-month downward trend, which has now been fully erased since Iran’s attack.

Goldman Sachs sharply raises 2026 oil price forecast: Hormuz Strait risk premium persists, Brent crude to $85. Due to prolonged disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and growing structural concerns over global supply concentration, Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 oil price forecast, bullish on oil and energy sectors. The bank emphasizes that inflation pressures may last longer, supporting commodity-linked currencies and increasing market concerns over central bank policies. In its latest outlook, Goldman assumes that oil transportation through this critical Middle Eastern chokepoint will operate at only 5% of normal levels for up to six weeks. Based on this, Goldman has raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast from $77 to $85 per barrel. It also raised its WTI forecast from $72 to $79 per barrel.

UBS CEO warns: Energy prices likely to stay high, Middle East conflict may inject “inflation pressure” into supply chains. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti stated that as investors digest the impact of Middle East conflicts on the global economy, energy prices may remain elevated. He noted that in the foreseeable future, energy prices could stay high, exerting inflationary pressure on supply chains. Due to the US President Trump’s deadline for reopening key maritime routes for Iran, which are vital for global energy transport, market risk aversion was evident on Monday, with stocks and US bonds declining. Year-to-date, Brent crude has risen over 80%, currently trading near $112 per barrel. Ermotti said that while the full impact of geopolitical conflicts will take time to digest, his clients have not made significant asset allocation adjustments.

WeRide (WRD.US) 2025 revenue soars 90%, hitting record high; Robotaxi users surge over 900%. On March 23, leading autonomous driving technology company WeRide (WRD.US) released unaudited financial results for Q4 and full year 2025. The company showed strong performance over the past year, accelerating commercialization. Total revenue for 2025 reached 690 million yuan, a 90% increase year-over-year, a record high; Q4 revenue was 314 million yuan, up 123% YoY, also a quarterly record. Core Robotaxi business experienced explosive growth, with annual revenue of 150 million yuan, up 209.6%; Q4 revenue hit a new high of 50.6 million yuan, up 66.4%, with domestic Robotaxi registered users increasing over 900% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a surge in market demand.

Nvidia (NVDA.US) partners with Emerald AI to create “Flexible AI Factory”. At the CERAWeek Energy Conference in Houston on March 23, 2026, global computing giant Nvidia announced a milestone strategic partnership with startup Emerald AI. The two, along with six top energy companies, launched the “Flexible AI Factory” concept based on Nvidia’s latest Vera Rubin DSX architecture. The collaboration aims to use Emerald AI’s Conductor intelligent platform to transform data centers from mere power consumers into “grid assets” capable of real-time power regulation and even reverse power flow.

STMicroelectronics (STM.US) partners with Huahong to locally deliver STM32, opening a new chapter in domestic MCU supply chain. On Monday, European semiconductor giant STMicroelectronics announced cooperation with Chinese chip manufacturer Huahong Semiconductor (01347) to begin delivering its STM32 wafers to Chinese customers. STMicroelectronics stated that the initial batch of microcontrollers (MCUs) is fully produced locally in China, with large-scale local production of the new STM32 series planned for this year.

AI computing demand continues to surge! Korea’s “AI Squid Game” ignites AMD (AMD.US) AI chip demand with over 10,000 units. Korean AI startup Upstage is negotiating to purchase 10,000 of AMD’s latest AI accelerators, part of its effort to introduce larger-scale AI infrastructure into Korea. This purchase, along with recent collaborations between AMD and tech leaders Tsinghua Tech (CLS.US), Huiyu Technology (HPE.US), indicates AMD’s AI solutions are gaining market recognition, potentially eroding Nvidia’s dominant 90% share in the AI core computing cluster market worth trillions of dollars.

Market trend? Costco (COST.US) tests independent gas stations, a key move in retail energy sector. Costco plans to open its first independent gas station in Mission Viejo, California, in June. Located at the former Bed Bath & Beyond site, it will feature 40 fueling stations, making it Costco’s largest fuel facility. Like all Costco gas stations, it will be members-only, operating from 5 am to 10 pm daily, without a convenience store. The retailer also plans a second independent station in Kalihi, Honolulu, expected to open in 2027. Analysts see this as a response to long-standing parking and fueling queues, and a test of member loyalty outside traditional store scenarios.

Key economic data and event preview

22:00 Beijing time: US January Construction Spending.