Bitcoin has fallen below a critical level — is this just a correction?

As of now, BTC is trading at $70,690 with a daily increase of +2.66%, but this does not mean the market has entered a stable upward trend. The usual behavior is: the price drops below key support levels, then makes a small rebound. However, looking at the broader context of recent weeks, it’s clear that selling pressure remains significant, and the coming days could be decisive in determining the next direction.

Current Situation: Bitcoin Under Increased Selling Pressure

The crypto market continues to play a game of uncertainty. In mid-March, BTC reached $74K, but in the last 24 hours, it quickly fell below the critical $70K mark. This reversal doesn’t seem accidental — according to Coinbase data, the premium index has returned to negative territory, indicating weakening buying activity in the physical market.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 10, one of the lowest readings. Such a level suggests a exhausted market position, where even minor hot news can trigger sharp fluctuations. Although the correction since February (when BTC dropped to $60K) has begun to subside, full recovery of buyer confidence has not yet been observed.

Long-term Holders Have Started Taking Profits

According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr, one reason for the decline is increased pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders. These investors — people who hold their BTC for over 155 days without moving — are starting to sell off profits en masse. It may seem paradoxical: long-term holders remain profitable on average (the price has fallen 46% since October, but their average position is still in profit), yet they are actively selling.

Short-term participants are also not lagging behind. According to Darkfrost, short-term traders recently moved a huge volume — 27,500 BTC — onto exchanges with profit. This is one of the highest volumes in recent weeks, explaining the strength of the recent dip below the psychological $70K level.

Potential Recovery: Where to Look for Market Reactions

However, a decline doesn’t necessarily mean the market will go straight down. Analysis of the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator from Santiment reveals an interesting pattern. The 30-day MVRV reached local highs — holders in the past month had about 8% profit. Meanwhile, the 90-day and 180-day MVRV show similarities to January’s dynamics.

In January, a similar picture was observed: small profits for 30-day holders, followed by a sharp jump for 90-day holders, which led to a rally in the middle of the month. After that, a strong correction followed (down to $60K). If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could rapidly move up to $83K, or even $89K, in the next 1-2 weeks. Such a reversal would force short-position traders to close their positions (liquidations), giving the market a short-term bullish impulse before the cycle repeats.

Short-term Scenario: Support Levels and Risks

During the previous cycle’s bottom, long-term holders suffered the greatest losses. Their average entry price was $39,800. Recently, a new psychological level has formed — $68K. This is the minimum price for short-term participants to realize their positions.

If BTC falls below this level, many positions will immediately be underwater, potentially triggering additional panic selling. On the other hand, if the price stays above $68K, it creates potential for a rebound. Volatility is expected to remain high over the coming weeks, so large moves — both down and up — are quite possible.

Conclusion: Although Bitcoin has recently fallen below the critical $70K level, this does not necessarily mean the market is heading to new lows. Instead, current MVRV dynamics and historical analogies point to the possibility of a short-term upward movement to $83K–$89K before the next correction wave begins. Key levels to watch are $68K on the downside and $75K on the upside.