There are 5,000 stocks waiting to rise, but I still managed to make a profit!

Market Analysis

I’m overwhelmed—major indices all dropped 3.6%, with the Shanghai Composite nearly breaking below 3,800 points. The total market turnover reached 2.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 144.7 billion yuan from yesterday. This isn’t just a correction; it’s outright panic selling. There are 5,000 stocks waiting to rise, with 28 hitting daily limit-ups for three consecutive days, but today, 71 stocks hit the limit-down, pushing profits to a freezing point.

The reason for the decline: increasing tensions in the Middle East, with the Hormuz Strait situation escalating, directly driving oil prices sky-high and pushing the risk of stagflation to the max. Meanwhile, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve have resurfaced, delaying expectations of interest rate cuts. Under this double blow, global risk assets are trembling.

Here at home, high-volatility sectors like robotics and AI surged too much earlier, so this is a good opportunity to offload holdings. Institutional positions are generally high, so any slight disturbance triggers a stampede. Quantitative trading has added fuel to the fire, accelerating the downward momentum. With both internal and external pressures, the market can only vent through sharp declines.

The entire market is in despair, with only a few sectors still showing some resilience. Green energy, coal, and petrochemicals have become safe havens, with funds hiding there for warmth. Energy storage and photovoltaics are also relatively resistant to falling. Other sectors like precious metals, tourism, and consumer electronics are all stuck at the bottom, rubbing along the floor.

Today, China Power LiaoNeng is the absolute star, with six consecutive limit-ups leading the market and becoming a beacon of faith amid weakness. Dongfang New Energy hit four limit-ups in six days, showing strong momentum. On the other hand, Chifeng Gold, a previously strong stock, plunged straight to the limit-down, with precious metals experiencing a money-losing effect.

The average stock price dropped 5.12% today—four words: confidence collapse. External macro uncertainties dominate everything, rendering technical analysis useless. Until the market shows clear signs of stabilization, any bottom-fishing is dangerous. Ordinary investors should hold steady and wait patiently for the wind to turn. Focusing on power shortages and dividend assets may be the few defensive options moving forward.

附：Exclusive Data

• First sheet shows basic data
• Second sheet reflects changes in popularity and hotspots
• Third sheet indicates market cycles, which are crucial
• The table provides data for five consecutive trading days
• Red highlights indicate “good”; green highlights indicate “bad”

In-Depth Information

1. Oil Price Control

The National Development and Reform Commission just issued an announcement on “temporary regulatory measures” for refined oil prices. The news came out on March 23 and takes effect tonight at midnight.

This time, 92-octane gasoline was effectively adjusted by 1,160 yuan per ton, and diesel by 1,115 yuan. What should the increase have been? 2,205 yuan and 2,120 yuan respectively. In other words, the increase was cut nearly in half, with less than 1,000 yuan added per ton.

Converted to your refueling experience, that’s about 0.85 yuan less per liter. Filling a 50-liter tank saves about 40 to 50 yuan.

As tensions in the US, Israel, and Iran escalate, Middle Eastern oil prices continue to rise, hitting record highs. Without intervention, this round of price adjustments could be the largest single increase in history. Essentially, the blame for the surge in international oil prices is partly borne by the government.

Looking back, on March 9, the price adjustment saw 92-octane gasoline increase by 695 yuan per ton, about 0.5 yuan per liter. That was a normal mechanism, with international oil prices just breaking $100 at the time.

This time is different. The background is more extreme: Middle Eastern crude oil has risen over 130% before the conflict, reaching $150 per barrel. Second, this is the first use of “temporary regulation” since the current mechanism was implemented in 2013. Previously, rules only triggered above $130, but now, before reaching that ceiling, the government has already stepped in.

Between safeguarding people’s livelihoods and maintaining the mechanism, the government chose to prioritize the former. After all, logistics and travel costs are passed down to consumers’ grocery baskets. Tonight, oil prices are likely to rise, and 92-octane gasoline may soon enter the 9-yuan era.

In summary, oil prices have indeed increased, but the rise is much less than it should have been. Chinese culture is profound and extensive. I suddenly feel like I’ve gained something! Interesting news, right?

2. Energy

Continuing from the previous topic, the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement today. They said that over 40 energy facilities in nine Middle Eastern countries have been bombed, with damage classified as “serious” or “very serious.”

Oil fields, refineries, and pipelines have all been halted. The IEA director warned that this impact could combine the effects of the two oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 natural gas crisis.

This isn’t just about rising oil prices. The Hormuz Strait remains closed, with 20 million barrels of oil blocked daily. The impact isn’t limited to oil and gas; even industrial lifelines like fertilizers and helium are disrupted.

Qatar, home to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) base, is also facing helium shortages. About one-third of global helium comes from Qatar, but their facilities have been bombed, cutting exports by 14%. Helium isn’t just for balloons; it’s an essential coolant in semiconductor manufacturing. Without it, high-end chip production stalls.

Prices have doubled, and 65% of South Korean chip companies rely on helium from Qatar. Their inventories won’t last long, and stock markets have already plummeted. While critical industries like healthcare and chip manufacturing will prioritize supply, this shock will further strain the already tight global chip supply chain.

The trouble may last longer than expected. Even if a ceasefire occurs tomorrow, repairing damaged equipment will take weeks, not days. The IEA has released 400 million barrels from reserves for emergency, but in the face of such supply disruptions, it’s a drop in the bucket.

Trump just issued a 48-hour ultimatum, which expires today. Will the situation worsen or improve?

3. Combating Internal Competition

Today, 12 platforms including Ctrip, Meituan, and JD.com were summoned for interviews due to “cutthroat” competition.

Taobao Flash Sale was singled out for selling a lamb skewer set at 2.58 yuan, down from 19.8 yuan without merchant approval. Merchants are losing money, making it impossible to operate. Ctrip’s price adjustment tool monitors hotel prices in real-time; if they don’t sell at the lowest price, they face traffic restrictions.

Essentially, these platforms leverage their dominance to force merchants into low-price competition. The result: merchants lose profits, service quality declines, and consumers don’t get real benefits.

Regulatory authorities issued an “Administrative Warning,” demanding rectification within a deadline. Ctrip’s “thumbs-up” icon was removed, and the price adjustment tool was taken offline.

It reminds me—I often travel and book hotels via Ctrip. I’ve been influenced by their “thumbs-up” icon, which makes me think I’m choosing a high-end hotel… but I didn’t realize at the time.

Disclaimer: The stocks mentioned are for review purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
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