March 23, 2026 Tomorrow, Don't Be Impulsive! Bottom Reversal

Replay content is purely personal thoughts and deductions, with no reference basis! Special times, special treatment! [Taoguba]

Before the replay, I’ll post two charts of swing trading strategies, so readers can compare and see which stage the market is at now!

Because I’ve experienced it, but each time the main force’s tactics are different. For example, this time Yi Zhongtian is still high and mighty, but apart from Dalian Chain, everything else is dead to the point of no return. Eastmoney has already reached last year’s 407 level! Logically, this level should break down! And later, this method will probably change because if I reveal it, it will become homogenized. Don’t blame me; those who survive in the market are those who respond flexibly, not those who follow textbook strategies! I update in real-time myself!

In last night’s live broadcast, I mainly discussed that whether or not there is a conflict between the US and Iran, we will adjust accordingly. The rise and fall of the stock market don’t need many excuses—there are only highs and lows! If the main force keeps hovering here without dropping, new trends won’t emerge anytime soon, just daily volume-based harvesting!

Back to the market chart: First question: Is today the bottom? I think not. Using a new type of ice point judgment method, today’s market volume increased. According to the four key elements of the previous ice point, with over 5,000 companies falling for three consecutive days, nearly 100 stocks hit the limit down, and fewer than 30 stocks hit the limit up, it feels like the ice point has been reached. But in reality, it’s not. Today’s volume was only 145.3 billion, and the entire day had some pulse-like, slightly manipulative behavior, especially the afternoon internet finance pulse and Eastmoney’s 14:23 surge structure, which are not right. The index is like this; let’s not talk about protecting the market at this point. Was it excessive for Eastmoney to surge midday? Funds then moved to internet finance. If the securities sector had issues, what about Eastmoney’s move at 14:23? It’s like they’re falsifying again—they could have pushed up but chose not to. They’re just giving a perfunctory response. If they’re just perfunctory, many people think a turning point is coming! The volume structure throughout the day is shown below: volume expanded, then shrank, then expanded again. It’s like the first wave of volume was not met with bottom-fishing, then it shrank, then Yi Zhongtian retreated with the index, then a volume wave again, but the result remained unchanged—no absorption, no bottom-fishing! The individual stock’s amplitude didn’t get smaller; instead, the lower limit accelerated downward. So, for today, I believe it’s not the bottom!

Second question: When will the bottom be seen? I posted two charts at the beginning, but those are based on historical summaries. The path can change, but the result won’t. Judging when the bottom occurs is equivalent to judging when the main force will act. Think carefully about a few details: ① Who has the ability at this moment to let some obscure sectors accelerate downward? The main force’s presence is mainly long and short. Where are the longs? Where are the shorts? What’s the purpose? The longs are mainly Dalian Chain, and the shorts are at the bottom! If the longs can be maintained, it shows the main force is present. Why would it still fall at this level? The answer is deliberate—aiming to get lower chips! Short selling via margin, buying back at low levels—this isn’t the first time they’ve done this. ② The current US-Iran conflict mainly impacts energy issues. For us, the impact should be minimal because our new energy sector is well-developed. This paragraph equates to tying electricity to energy! Since the impact is minimal, why should it fall so much? ③ If you are a trader above 4100 points, what excuse would you find to let the market adjust? Is the US-Iran conflict the best reason? I think so.

There are other details I won’t list one by one. The key point is that news is secondary; conflicts are secondary. The initiative in news is uncontrollable, but the market’s main control lies in the hands of the main force. They just use this news to play bigger cards.

Since this war started, it’s mostly been about a unreliable mouthpiece, almost fooling the entire world. Tonight, there’s news of dialogue with Iran, saying there won’t be strikes within five days. That’s the most troublesome because the kill-off is almost done, and the speaker is unreliable! This could lead to a high open tomorrow and a fake-out. But it also gives inside players a chance to cut losses, then observe the main force’s sincerity!

In the comments tonight, many people are asking whether to believe it or not. It’s simple: if you care deeply about US-Iran’s situation and think the market is caused by it, then consider whether this news actually solves any problems. If you don’t care about the US-Iran situation and analyze from the market perspective, do you think the trapped positions can be immediately dissolved tomorrow? Who can the main force push up tomorrow? Power, robots, commercial aerospace, Dalian Chain, etc.? Would you buy at this level? So, this news is good for insiders tonight but not for outsiders!

Third question: How long can electricity stocks go? Again, the same swing trading chart: one side is the market’s decline, the other is emotional excitement. This time, Huadian LiaoNeng, a non-margin stock, hit the sixth limit-up, likely pushed by funds aiming for the seventh limit-up. This is a move into abnormal territory. Tonight’s news has little reaction from institutions but impacts sentiment. They can take advantage of the situation to break through, but this also means electricity stocks are entering a “fish tail” phase. Yunnan Energy Holdings is also preparing for this, with two trading days: one for a breakout to the seventh limit-up, and another for a 200% abnormal move. Logically, both should break through. Then electricity stocks will peak. At this point, outsiders can look at convertible bonds. When stocks break into abnormal territory, it’s outside the usual rules. Today, most mid-cap electricity stocks are already falling behind, like ShaoNeng Shares, Jinkai New Energy, Guangdong Electric Power A, GCL New Energy, etc. The market is either a new wave led by Huadian LiaoNeng and similar energy stocks, or the older core stocks are still alive. Tomorrow, besides watching the new high levels and feedback from the older group, we should also see whether the mid-cap stocks’ negative feedback expands or begins to recover.

Summary: Opportunities come from declines. We don’t need to precisely predict the exact bottom day because our trading is based on cognition. We only need to consider whether individual stocks are worth it in terms of price. During this period, news is just about whether to sell first or buy first—nothing else!

Tonight, many people seem unable to hold back, feeling that the market hasn’t risen yet but fearing missing out. That’s the easiest way to make mistakes. Tomorrow morning, I’ll need to adjust my positions to avoid being swept away by emotions. Let’s give the main force a chance to bottom out first. We’re just riding the wave. For those with holdings inside the market, I think they’re most calm—T+ trading, if wrong, just exit; hold steady, roll back and forth, waiting for the big bottom! It should come in the second half of this week!

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