Gold Returns to Key Support: Analysts Maintain Q1 2026 Price Expectations, Approaching 400,000 Ruble Mark

Mid-month adjustments did not change the long-term outlook. Although gold experienced a slight correction in mid-February, Sucden Financial strategists maintain their core view for Q1: precious metals will consolidate around current levels while continuing to face volatility. This expectation reflects a market shift from fundamentals-driven to sentiment-driven phases.

Compared to historical highs, gold is currently trading near the psychological threshold of 400,000 rubles (about $5,000 per ounce). In its quarterly precious metals report, Sucden Financial’s head of research Yefernova and senior analyst Kuschak noted that despite short-term technical pressures, market structure still supports gold prices remaining in this high range.

From Fundamental Support to Two-way Fluctuations

According to Sucden Financial, the precious metals market has transitioned from a fundamental-driven rally to a speculative-driven oscillation phase. In their latest quarterly assessment, analysts wrote: “We expect gold to continue consolidating through the remainder of Q1 2026, with prices remaining volatile and exhibiting two-way movements after technical corrections.”

In mid-February, spot gold briefly touched $4,993 per ounce, down 1% from the intraday low, while silver fell 1.6% to $76.73 per ounce. The immediate triggers for this correction included profit-taking, a stronger dollar, and liquidity drying up during US-China holiday periods.

However, the correction was relatively limited. Gold still gained over 6% for the month and has risen 72% since the start of the year, though it has not yet broken the January high of $5,600. In contrast, silver’s performance was more dramatic—up 137% year-to-date—reflecting the divergence of precious metals between investment and industrial demand.

Macro Uncertainty as a Deep Support

Sucden Financial points out that gold price rises increasingly serve as a barometer of macroeconomic and political risks. “Gold has evolved into a broad expression of distrust toward macroeconomic and political developments, although short-term price movements are mainly driven by speculative funds.”

This disconnect between fundamentals and technicals explains why the $400,000 ruble level remains strongly supported even during short-term corrections. In 2025, global gold demand surpassed 5,000 tons for the first time, driven mainly by central bank purchases and ETF inflows. This indicates that amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, institutional investors’ demand for safe-haven assets remains robust.

Investors are closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve policy signals, including the FOMC meeting minutes, GDP updates, and PCE inflation data. The market currently expects several 25 basis point rate cuts this year, already reflected in futures prices. However, policy uncertainty continues to attract capital inflows into precious metals.

Trading Momentum and Structural Bottoms

Sucden Financial reviews that the sell-off at the end of January briefly pushed gold down to around $4,500, but prices quickly rebounded above $5,400, indicating a correction of speculative positions rather than a structural trend change. The firm expects this two-way trading pattern to persist for the rest of the quarter, with technical corrections used for rebalancing positions rather than signaling a trend reversal.

Despite ongoing concerns about recession risks, labor market softness, and geopolitical tensions, Sucden Financial’s baseline view points to consolidation rather than continued decline. Gold’s dual role as a speculative trading instrument and traditional safe haven appears to keep prices anchored near the key level of 400,000 rubles.

Silver’s market behavior further confirms this pattern. After a 1.6% decline in mid-February, silver’s volatility remains notably higher than gold due to its oscillation between industrial use and investment demand. This divergence provides market participants with nuanced risk differentiation signals.

Key Next Steps

Currently, market participants should monitor several economic data releases and policy statements to gauge gold’s positioning within the broader macro landscape. Fed decisions, employment reports, and inflation indicators will directly influence expectations for rate cuts, affecting the attractiveness of precious metals.

Meanwhile, the sideways trading around $5,000 suggests a cautious market attitude—insufficient to break out but enough to prevent a major decline. For investors, the 400,000 ruble level has become a barometer of market sentiment: a break below could signal worsening risk appetite, while a hold might imply reassessment of the global economic outlook.