Blockbeats News - Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket's probability for the event "US and Iran to cease fire before March 31" surged rapidly to 44% in the short term, then fell back to approximately 16%, corresponding to significant short-term volatility. Trump previously stated that US-Iran dialogue has made good progress and postponed military action against Iran's energy infrastructure; however, Iran subsequently denied multiple times that there are direct or indirect contacts between the two sides, calling relevant statements "psychological warfare." Meanwhile, Israel claimed to have conducted airstrikes on Tehran, causing geopolitical tensions to tighten again, leading to rapid reversal of market expectations. Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continuously monitors prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing occurs.