Southwest Securities Research Institute Strategy Team Interpretation of the 15th Five-Year Plan: Anchoring New Quality Productive Forces with Three Clear Investment Directions

How will AI and new quality productivity change the economic growth model?

The “14th Five-Year Plan” recently released, with the Southwest Securities Research Institute strategy team pointing out that compared to the “14th Five-Year Plan,” the policy focus of the “15th Five-Year Plan” has clearly shifted from “building a new development pattern” to “developing new quality productivity.” Technological innovation and industrial upgrading will become the core driving forces for the next five years, bringing three major investment themes to the capital market driven by new quality productivity: advanced manufacturing, digital intelligence revolution, and reshaping industry patterns driven by anti-inflation.

From the structure of the policy document, the overall framework of the 15th Five-Year Plan continues the development logic of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the policy focus shifting from “building a new development pattern” to “developing new quality productivity.” Both plans set 20 main indicators, but the 15th Five-Year Plan makes structural adjustments: on one hand, it weakens the rigidity of traditional growth indicators, with no five-year average growth rate target for GDP, instead using a “reasonable range” flexible expression; on the other hand, it significantly emphasizes indicators related to people’s livelihood quality and safety, replacing and upgrading green transformation indicators—shifting from “reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP” and “percentage of days with good air quality” emphasized in the 14th Five-Year Plan to more results-oriented indicators such as the share of non-fossil energy in the energy structure and PM2.5 concentration control. Livelihood indicators also shift from coverage rates to service quality metrics like medical, elderly care, and education resource allocation levels, reflecting a transition from “scale expansion growth” to “quality and safety-oriented growth.”

Regarding policy priorities, the primary task of the 15th Five-Year Plan can be summarized as “upgrading the industrial system driven by new quality productivity.” The innovation-driven development strategy proposed during the 14th Five-Year Plan is further strengthened in the 15th, combined with national capacity-building goals, forming capability systems such as manufacturing power, technological strength, energy independence, agricultural strength, and financial strength. The core is to build a complete modern industrial system. From an investment perspective, this shift essentially moves from traditional infrastructure investment to “technology-based infrastructure and advanced industrial chain construction.” Key areas include advanced manufacturing, high-end equipment, digital economy infrastructure, new energy systems, and modern transportation and aerospace industries, which will support national strategic investments over the next five years.

In the fields of technological innovation and emerging industries, the 15th Five-Year Plan shows a clear trend of “industrial upgrading” compared to the 14th. The frontier technologies in the 14th plan mainly focused on research-oriented fields like quantum information, brain-like intelligence, and gene technology. The 15th adds new industrialization-oriented tracks such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, biomanufacturing, brain-computer interfaces, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, and 6G communication. Notably, the plan introduces the “AI+” strategy for the first time, emphasizing infrastructure for computing power, data resources, and model ecosystems, marking AI’s upgrade from a single technological focus to a foundational infrastructure for the digital economy. In the low-altitude economy, it promotes healthy industry development, improved airspace management, and application systems, laying policy groundwork for drone logistics and urban air mobility. Commercial space activities are integrated into strategies for space power, satellite internet, and BeiDou applications, forming a space infrastructure industry chain. Overall, these emerging industries are policy-guided by three technological platforms: digital intelligence technology, aerospace infrastructure, and future energy technologies.

Concerning the implicit “anti-inflation” policy direction in the plan, while not explicitly stated, its implications are reflected in multiple chapters. At the industry level, efforts focus on promoting high-end, digital, and green upgrades, and cultivating new quality productivity to escape low-value-added competition; at the capital level, emphasis is placed on developing long-term and patient capital, increasing direct financing, and guiding capital into technological innovation and strategic industries rather than short-term arbitrage; at the industry organization level, optimizing industrial layout and regional coordination to reduce redundant construction and disorderly competition. Based on recent policy signals, the anti-inflation policy may be implemented in phases: the first phase around 2026 will target industries like new energy, automobiles, and photovoltaics through supply-side management and industry standards to reduce excessive competition; the second phase from 2026 to 2027 will leverage mergers, acquisitions, and capital market reforms to increase industry concentration; the third phase aims to gradually establish a leading enterprise-driven industry pattern, improving the competitive environment.

Synthesizing these policy directions, the Southwest Securities Research Institute strategy team has identified three core investment themes during the 15th Five-Year period. The first is the upgrade of advanced manufacturing driven by new quality productivity, with semiconductors, high-end equipment, industrial software, and robotics becoming the core focus of industry policy support. The second is the digital intelligence revolution, centered on AI, computing infrastructure, and data elements, spreading to robotics, automation, and intelligent manufacturing, achieving comprehensive “AI+ industry” upgrades. The third is the reshaping of industry patterns driven by anti-inflation policies, which promote industry consolidation through supply-side management, industry standards, mergers, and capital guidance. Overcapacity industries like new energy, automobiles, and photovoltaics may accelerate their exit, while leading companies and those with technological advantages are expected to gain higher market share amid a more optimized competitive landscape, driving industry concentration through technology and scale advantages.

Overall, the policy logic of the 14th Five-Year Plan focused on building a new development pattern, while the 15th emphasizes technological revolution and industrial upgrading as the core drivers, pushing the economy toward high-end and technology-intensive transformation. For the capital market, this means future growth will increasingly stem from technological infrastructure, future industries, and high-end manufacturing sectors.

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