AI tailwinds will drive gains for this software stock after a decline to start 2026, Mizuho says

MongoDB is poised for a rally as its growth profile improves and it continues to embrace artificial intelligence to keep its developer data platform’s operations lean, according to Mizuho. The bank upgraded MongoDB to outperform from neutral. It also raised the stock’s price target to $325 from $290, implying 24% upside from Friday’s close. “MongoDB’s growth profile has inflected meaningfully … [and] we see AI as a structural tailwind,” analyst Siti Panigrahi said Sunday in a note to clients. MDB YTD mountain MDB in 2026 The company is on track to increase its customer base by 60% year on year in fiscal 2026, while revenue from existing customers improves, according to Panigrahi. At the same time, MongoDB’s headcount is growing just 1% against a 23% increase in revenue, signaling “efficient, durable growth,” he noted. The company is “unlike SaaS peers facing AI disruption risk [because] MongoDB operates at the infrastructure layer where AI is net additive,” Panigrahi wrote. “Vibe coding is accelerating applications creation, each requiring a data layer, while AI workloads are more database-intensive, driving higher activity per application.” CEO CJ Desai, who took the reins late last year, is also expected to leverage his Fortune 500 relationships to accelerate large-deal momentum at the firm, per Mizuho. “Our bottom-up analysis suggests these drivers can support upside FY27 revenue of $3.07B (25% growth) vs. Street at $2.90B (18%), with upside flowing through to margins given the lean cost structure,” Mizuho analysts wrote. The bank’s call falls in line with consensus on the Street. About three-quarters of the 42 analysts covering the stock have a buy or strong buy rating on MongoDB, according to LSEG data. MongoDB has fallen 38% in 2026. A chunk of that decline came this month, with shares dropping 22% on March 3 on the back of lighter-than-expected guidance for the first quarter.