coinmamba Analysis: Liquidity is Key in Bitcoin Halving Cycle

Renowned crypto analyst coinmamba recently made a significant comment on market activity. He pointed out that the market cycle after the 2021 peak is showing a completely different pattern, where traditional bond markets are also performing strongly. This shift is an important signal in the current economic environment.

BTC Status Amid Improving Debt Markets

As coinmamba noted, the VIX risk index was at 20.82 in risk-off mode, yet the 20-year bond ETF ($TLT) gained 1.33% today. This is an unusual sign that different asset classes are behaving differently in the market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ($BTC) is telling a different story—currently at $68.61K, it is about 664 days after the last halving.

Historical Cycle: What to Expect from Current Levels?

coinmamba’s most important observation is that in previous halving cycles, similar time points saw an average increase of 2917%. Currently, market sentiment is also quite cautious—Fear & Greed Index is only at 9, indicating extreme fear. This could be a sign of a potential correction based on historical patterns.

Market Liquidity: The Real Key

The core conclusion of coinmamba’s analysis is that the driving factor of current market activity is liquidity. Both the bond and crypto markets are connected to multi-faceted global liquidity conditions. When liquidity improves, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to perform strongly. Therefore, monitoring liquidity trends in the near future is the most important.