Dow Jones Futures Fall As Trump's Strait Of Hormuz Deadline Nears

2026-03-23 11:13:33

Dow Jones futures fell solidly early Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. U.S. crude oil prices wavered while Treasury yields rose. President Donald Trump deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz looms.

The stock market fell solidly last week, with all the major indexes breaking below their 200-day lines and multimonth lows. Global oil prices kept climbing amid the Iran war while bond yields surged.

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This is a time to remain largely in cash, but stay engaged.

Nextpower (NXT), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Ensign Group (ENSG) are three stocks to watch.

Megacaps Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) broke below long-term support, with the latter round-tripping a late 2025 rally. Both fell further on Monday.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures declined 0.65% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures sank 0.8%. Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled 1%.

U.S. crude oil futures edged higher, slightly above $98 a barrel.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed several basis points to 4.44%, continuing an Iran war surge. The two-year yield hit 4% for the first time since last June.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

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Trump’s Iran War Ultimatum

President Trump posted on Truth Social at 7:44 p.m. ET Saturday that the U.S. would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran doesn’t “FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours.”

Iran’s military said it will strike energy infrastructure and desalination plants in the region if the U.S. targets its power plants.

Late Friday, Trump posted that he was considering “winding down” the Iran war, saying military efforts have degraded Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities.

Trump has said multiple times that the Iran war is almost over, only to quickly signal extended operations or escalation.

Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally started with gains but ended with sharp losses as oil prices and bond yields kept rising, especially overseas. The major indexes broke their 200-day moving averages and undercut November lows.

While individual up sessions and reversals off lows have happened frequently, the key indexes have now fallen for four straight weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq composite fell 2.1% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index lost 1.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gave up 1.7%, just holding the 200-day line after testing that level Friday afternoon.

Yields Soar, Rate Hikes In Play

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 11 basis points to 4.39%, up 19 basis points in the past three sessions and the highest close since last July. Yields in many other countries show similar or larger gains.

Despite the Federal Reserve on Wednesday still signaling one rate cut in 2026, markets now see a modest chance of a rate hike. Markets see hikes in Europe and the U.K. this year.

These Five AI Plays Are Near Buy Points

Global Oil Prices Rise Amid Trump Comments, Iran War

U.S. crude oil futures actually fell 0.4% to $98.32 a barrel last week, though they rebounded Friday.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, jumped 8.8% to $112.19, though off weekly highs of above $119, after Iranian attacks on Gulf energy assets. Some Mideast crude cash prices were $150 or higher.

Oil prices presumably will remain high, and likely trend higher, as long as the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed. Barring an end to hostilities, securing the Strait to resume tanker traffic could be a lengthy process.

While the U.S. is somewhat insulated due to its high domestic oil and natural gas production, high prices for energy, fertilizer and more — along with surging bond yields — raise concerns about global stagflation.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell 1.4%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) declined 0.7%, with Nvidia stock the largest holding by far.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) shed 1.6% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) slid 1.2%. Tesla is the largest position across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) tumbled 6.7% last week. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rallied 2.8%, its 13th straight weekly gain. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) retreated 3%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) declined 1.8%.

The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) edged up 0.4%.

Best Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch

Nvidia And Tesla Slump

Nvidia gave bullish AI chip sales guidance this past week, but shares fell 4.1% to 172.93, breaking below the 200-day line for the first time in 10 months. NVDA stock edged lower 1% before Monday’s open.

Tesla expects Full Self Driving approval in Europe soon, but FSD faces an expanded NHTSA probe at home while true self-driving promises haven’t been met. Meanwhile, China EV rivals are launching a slew of new and updated models while Tesla’s cupboard is bare.

Tesla stock fell 5.9% to 367.96, also dropping below its 200-day average for the first time in months. Intraday Friday, TSLA hit 364.96, retracing a 36% rally from a 367.71 buy point last September.

On Saturday, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla and SpaceX will jointly work on a “Terafab” project for advanced chip manufacturing, entering an extremely expensive, technically challenging and long-term field.

Tesla fell more than 2% early Monday.

What To Do Now

The stock market continues to trend lower and has no clear support levels left.

Some sectors are doing well, but even they are prone to huge swings or risk massive sell-offs if Iran war news changes.

Investors should largely be in cash, avoiding new buys or making small pilot purchases. With the indexes below their 200-day lines, investors also may want to consider trimming or exiting some long-term winners, though a lot of factors would be involved with those decisions.

At some point the market will have a sustained uptrend. If Trump were to announce an end to hostilities, the market reaction could be stunning.

Often the big winners take off in the first several days of a new rally.

So it’s important to stay engaged and working on watchlists. Look for stocks flexing relative strength. Nextpower has a new handle on its shallow double-bottom base. Applied Materials and Ensign Group have pulled back bullishly after solid runs, holding key support.

Space play Karmen Holdings (KRMN) and heavy construction firm Argan (AGX) are notable earnings in the coming week.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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