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Source: Xinhua Finance

Xinhua Finance Beijing, March 18 — Yesterday (March 17), spot gold continued the tug-of-war around the $5,000 per ounce level, with April U.S. gold futures slightly up by 0.1% to $5,008.20 per ounce, showing a high-level oscillation overall. Currently, the gold market is in a delicate balance between geopolitical safe-haven support and monetary policy suppression. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision has become the key variable determining short-term gold price direction, while escalating Middle East conflicts provide a bottom support for gold prices. The $5,000 level has become a critical battleground for bulls and bears in the short term.

From a fundamental perspective, the escalation of Middle East tensions is the core bullish factor supporting gold prices. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran have entered their third week, with Iran launching three attacks on the UAE’s Fujeirah port within four days, causing partial disruptions at this oil export hub and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, blocking about 20% of global oil and gas trade routes. As the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, the UAE has cut its oil output by more than half, pushing Brent crude futures above $100 per barrel, reaching the highest since 2022, while WTI crude futures remain above $90. The surge in oil prices raises global inflation and stagflation concerns, highlighting gold’s safe-haven and inflation-hedging attributes, providing important support at the bottom. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine situation has become less influential, with its marginal impact on gold prices significantly weakening.

As the Federal Reserve’s decision approaches, it becomes the main obstacle to gold price gains, with market caution toward monetary policy suppressing bullish sentiment. The consensus expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with focus on the dot plot and Powell’s statements. Due to Middle East conflicts, market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have sharply fallen from 55 basis points to 26 basis points. The Fed is likely to adopt a hawkish neutral stance, maintaining flexibility for rate hikes or cuts. As the U.S. is a net oil exporter benefiting from rising oil prices through improved trade conditions, the likelihood of easing by the Fed decreases. If the dot plot indicates only one 25-basis-point rate cut, gold prices may face further downward pressure.

Additionally, the movements of the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets provide short-term relief for gold. Yesterday, the dollar index fell for the second consecutive day by 0.24% to 99.56, significantly off its recent 10-month high; U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities declined, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.20%, a total decline of 9 basis points over the past three trading days, the largest since November last year. A weaker dollar reduces the cost of holding gold, while falling Treasury yields decrease the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets, providing technical support for gold at the $5,000 level. However, this support remains constrained by Fed policy expectations.

On the technical side, spot gold on the daily chart continues to fluctuate around the $5,000 level, with repeated sideways movements that may form a consolidation pattern. Although there is no clear breakout direction in the short term, the overall oscillation carries the risk of weakening again.

Looking ahead, gold prices are likely to remain volatile around the $5,000 level in the short term, with the Fed decision being a key turning point. If the dot plot further lowers expectations for rate cuts, Powell emphasizes inflation risks with a hawkish tone, or if tensions in the Middle East ease, gold may face a correction. Conversely, if tensions persist, oil prices stay high, and the Fed adopts a cautious stance, gold’s safe-haven and inflation-hedging properties will be further highlighted, and the $5,000 level could become a new starting point for an upward move. In the medium to long term, if geopolitical tensions continue or oil prices further spike out of control, gold still has the potential to hit new highs.

(Author: Wang Shenghao, Senior Analyst at Zhongzhou Futures, Investment Consulting License: Z0021754)

【Gold Time】 is a special program jointly produced by Xinhua Finance and China Gold News, focusing on the gold and jewelry market. It covers policy developments, investment information, risk analysis, and provides authoritative, professional, and comprehensive financial information services in the gold and jewelry sector. Xinhua Finance is a national financial information platform built by Xinhua News Agency.

Editor: Wu Zhengsi