3.18 As long as you behave, I'll buy you a gai, ETF rain and dew spread evenly, jungle and other main lines

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From now on, all follow and unfollow actions will include logical breakdowns. Brothers interested in learning can review them together with the morning market thoughts. Once you learn the logic, you can gradually incorporate your own understanding!**
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First, an overview of the market**

Let’s review the morning market thoughts. Last night, the US stocks performed generally, rising then falling back, but they held up much better than the A-shares, at least staying in the red zone with oscillations. Oil futures also mainly oscillated. Overall, the external environment can be temporarily ignored regarding conflicts, as short-term conditions won’t improve or worsen significantly. Funds are starting to flow back to previous positions, similar to institutional replenishments. Regarding NVIDIA’s GTC conference, there were no surprises; instead, Google’s factory review stimulated the liquid cooling sector. Micron hit a new high last night, and SanDisk nearly did too. Due to rising prices, storage hardware outperformed other AI hardware. However, since there’s no expectation gap, the A-shares need to observe support levels. It’s like playing a card game—if they play one card, and A-shares add another, it’s always passive. Chemical and electric power sectors are rivals, most feared is AI hardware returning flow, which explains why AI hardware tends to drain power and chemical sectors.
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Looking at today’s market, the opening was an attack on computing power synergy, but the rival chemical sector Da Vinci was the first to hold back; secondly, AI hardware started attacking after opening, but with low volume, it was draining. That’s why many say computing synergy opened the strongest but also fell back the most. Quantitative market, electric fan rotation—strong opening isn’t good; it’s prone to rotation and retreat later. Fosheng paused trading, possibly moving 20% in three days, but avoid getting too close to it to prevent sudden regulatory shocks like Yunnan Energy. This stock is known to be controlled by certain players; early trust is better than late regret. Sanhechang’s turnover three, normally a top, had a strong early upgrade, which was beyond expectations. In the industrial chain, don’t overanalyze logic; it’s all about chips. Today, Fosheng showed negative feedback in the morning, with many big players following suit—Jingtou Development, Zhuolang Intelligent, Guosheng Technology—mimicry is inevitable. Also, many stocks surged at the end of yesterday, making it hard to focus on weak-to-strong shifts early on. Be alert for backlash.**

Sentiment is continuously opening up, with fewer limit-downs than yesterday, supporting the rebound of the broader market. However, the market lacks volume, so the rebound is weak. Small-cap stocks will perform better today because of low volume; mainly, the main board’s large caps are falling, while the ChiNext index, which fell more yesterday, is recovering better. Clearly, ChiNext relies on stocks like Yizhongtian Storage to support the market, without needing continuous limit-ups; institutional trend is dominant. On the main board, limit-up heights are opening up, but compared to yesterday’s upgrade rate, there are still significant disagreements below. In a fragmented situation, watch more and act less; focus on low positions for follow-through.
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Looking at the limit-up stocks**, four stocks advanced to five, with Sanhechang strongly upgraded today. From a turnover perspective, it’s a turnaround three, capable of breaking the four-limit height, indicating a task-driven move. No need to overanalyze its logic; it’s mainly controlled chips used to open up heights. A new main rise should appear later, so patience is key. When tools open up heights, the next main rise will be smoother. Three-in-four stocks, however, all failed today, proving the mid-tier resistance is real, especially when follow-on buying is weak, making support easy to lose.
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For two-in-three stocks, Shenhua Development still led with a big single, guiding the node. Yesterday, it helped Huaneng Liaoning, and today it hit the limit with reduced holdings—feels like a small group’s tactic, perhaps sensing the reduction. During bidding, Shunna was most optimistic; Guangdong Power had multiple limit-ups, Hanlan and Yunnan Energy also opened red. Shenhua Development’s A-shares are tough, with big single orders, but Shunna still has the same issue—after a limit-up reversal, it stayed red the next day, attracting buyers. Today, it’s overly obvious, lacking expectation gap.
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One-in-two stocks, yesterday’s first limit-up, still had a decent upgrade rate today, but the number of stocks upgraded remains small. The first to upgrade was Yabo Shares, which, from a turnover perspective, is also a three, with a turnaround three-angle, making a second wave plausible. Shaogang Hongxing, early in the morning, was proactive—low price + nuclear power + aerospace, a 1+1 pattern, matching Yabo. Jidan Biological, with no special features, followed Sanfangxiang’s lead; when Sanfangxiang exploded, it remained sealed, later re-closed, indicating consistent operation.
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Shunhao Data Center, with strong computing power rebound today, isn’t particularly strong overall; after noon, it led aerospace stocks higher. Some ask why its recognition is higher—probably due to more prior activity and higher heights, making it more dynamic than Shaogang Hongxing, which is newer and less influential. Gansu’s side, possibly just a follower of Shunhao’s second wave.
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Finally, today’s market outlook**. Yesterday, 100% of limit-up stocks upgraded, indicating high consistency. Today, many stocks hit the limit-up, so the plan is simple: focus on low positions, avoid mid-to-high positions for follow-through. Old fans know that at this stage, the best is to look at second-in-three stocks, as they are the highest sentiment indicators. Because of the overall market situation, second-in-three stocks can resist damage better. Fosheng and Sanfangxiang were both playing the all-in game in the previous setup.
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Electric power and chemical sectors are rivals, with one weakening and the other strengthening. Today, electric power started weak but turned strong, while chemical sectors kept retreating. AI hardware fears chemical sectors, so if electric power suppresses AI hardware, chemical sectors need to rise sharply to push AI hardware up, relying on oil futures for support.
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Low positions, guided by unexpected one-word signals, point to Shaoneng Shares today. Paired with Guangdong Electric Power A, it can lock in electric power sector. But the first limit-up electric power stock has a problem: it’s under positional pressure, and with Shenhua Development still present, the first limit-up node might be off. So, today, with Shaoneng’s largest bid, the best approach is to watch Shenhua Development’s same-position stocks. Huaneng Liaoning is the strongest; Shunna can only be a low-buy trial.
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Review of bidding info**. Chitianhua opened flat, with no premium—think about it: it led yesterday afternoon, but opened without premium, not to mention follow-ups like Jinjingda and Jinniu. Shapuaisi’s opening was the largest single, but it withdrew later after regulatory inquiry. Shaoneng’s second-largest order and Guangdong Power’s third point to Guangdong’s computing power. Today, Shunna’s performance was slightly below expectations. Ideally, a five-point gap-up would have been perfect.
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Moreover, Shaoneng’s SN and Shunna’s SN match, but they still don’t eat the “feeding,” possibly due to poor stock temperament. Shenhua Development continues with large single orders, with a toughness of three; if overnight, no buy-in, it’s hard to buy in without a three-order withdrawal. When it hits 919, Shaoneng is the largest order, so in the absence of rivals, fermentation is inevitable.
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The suspense lies in whether Shenhua Development will sell off at 920; at 925, Huaneng Liaoning grabbed the limit-up, confirming the node. With toughness three + turnover, someone is taking profits. Shaoneng’s first limit-up as the largest order is no longer a guide but a tool. Shunna’s excessive red opening signals are too obvious—each time, such clear signals tend to be traps.
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In bidding for chips, the top openers are Tianfu and Baiwei Storage, both AI hardware stocks. Today’s AI hardware rebound can’t be avoided, but note that AI benefits from the broader market; if the broader market shrinks volume, it’s prone to sharp rises and falls. Chemical bidding is more extreme, but not many limit-downs. Yesterday, I expected many stocks to hit the limit after the graduation photo, but support seems okay, indicating chemical trends are embedded in quant strategies. As quant strategies continue, batch limit-downs are unlikely. External uncertainties mean chemical sectors will fluctuate repeatedly.
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Overall, in the entire market, bidding signals mainly point to computing power synergy, with rapid rotation today. Chemical sectors declined due to falling oil futures, with significant divergence. As long as oil remains high, price increases are gradual, but with oil futures falling, adjustments are happening, indicating chemical sectors are trending. Once core recognition is adjusted, they still have trend value. AI hardware, with storage stocks strong all day, and Google’s factory review fueling liquid cooling, benefited from the Hong Kong stock token surge and cloud computing news at noon.
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Today’s rotation was fast; the broad market once shrank volume to 180 billion. By noon, institutional stocks rebounded, and volume increased slightly. According to pre-market expectations, as long as the broad market isn’t confirmed to reverse with volume, weak rebounds are just a prelude to whether to exit. Conversely, in a non-reversal trend, chasing the strong and buying the weak is basically courting disaster.
Currently, market support levels are uncertain; buying the most recognizable strong stocks is better than following the crowd. If the market adjusts again, following the herd will only lead to bigger declines. The afternoon saw a rally, but no one’s resonance was the strongest. Mainly, GJD’s broad-based ETF support kept all stocks evenly distributed. After the market turned red, two main board stocks hit the limit, and in the late session, two tech stocks with growth potential rose.
Overall, I think it’s premature to say the index has reversed or that the main force is showing sincerity. Retail investors need continuous main themes to make money; otherwise, this fan-like market with the wrong rhythm can lead to losses.**