WTI Oil Price Breaks $100 Again! Goldman Sachs: Global GDP May Be Impacted by 0.3 Percentage Points

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Source: Cailian Press

Cailian Press, March 16 — As the Iran conflict enters its third week, the world’s most severe oil transportation disruption in history continues. Due to signals from the Trump administration suggesting the war with Iran could last several more weeks, international oil prices have risen again.

On Monday morning, the global benchmark Brent crude oil opened with a rise of 2.9%, reaching approximately $106.12 per barrel; U.S. WTI crude oil also increased by 2.6%, breaking the $100 mark to $101.53 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs analysts stated that the surge in oil prices caused by the Iran conflict could reduce global economic growth by about 0.3 percentage points and push inflation higher over the next year. However, the upward pressure on prices may be limited to the energy sector in the short term.

Iran Conflict May Impact Global Economic Growth

Last week, Goldman Sachs’ global investment research team released a report lowering the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2026 from 2.8% to 2.6%. Additionally, Goldman economists warned that if Middle Eastern hostilities persist longer, the U.S. economic growth rate could face further decline.

Goldman estimates that rising energy prices will drag down global economic growth and increase overall global inflation by about 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points, with core inflation rising by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.

This outlook reflects updated oil and natural gas forecasts following the supply disruptions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the conflict.

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), due to large-scale oil supply disruptions, U.S. gasoline prices have been rising, increasing by 24% since the start of the war, with an average price of $3.70 per gallon.

Goldman also stated that so far, the economic impact of this conflict has been mainly concentrated in the energy markets, rather than the entire supply chain, meaning a widespread increase in prices similar to the COVID-19 pandemic may not occur.

Price Increase Pressures Likely Limited to Energy Sector

Disruptions to oil tanker transportation through the Strait of Hormuz have caused international energy prices to surge significantly. The rise in global oil and natural gas prices is expected to impact economic activity across various economies and increase consumer price pressures worldwide.

Despite the energy shock, Goldman pointed out that most major economies have relatively low dependence on Middle Eastern non-energy goods for trade, as Gulf countries’ non-energy exports account for only 1% of global trade, limiting the broader supply chain impact.

Goldman also noted that the current situation differs from the global inflation surge of 2021-2022, when multiple supply chains were simultaneously disrupted. In the current conflict, inflation impacts are expected to remain mainly confined to the energy sector.

However, Goldman warned that if the conflict intensifies or the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, supply chain risks could increase. Long-term disruptions to energy supplies could push oil prices higher, further hampering global economic growth and keeping inflation elevated.

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Editor: Zhao Siyuan