Ultimate Showdown? Battle for the Strait of Hormuz Emerges

U.S. Military Claims Use of Earth-penetrating Bombs to Strike Iranian Missile Sites Along the Strait of Hormuz

On the 17th, U.S. Central Command posted on social media that U.S. forces used multiple 5,000-pound earth-penetrating bombs to strike Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.

The report states that these locations house Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles, which pose a threat to international shipping within the strait.

Recently, President Trump has repeatedly urged European countries and other allies to participate in escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, complaining that some allies are “not enthusiastic” about assisting the U.S… On the morning of the 17th, Trump posted on social media that most NATO allies have informed the U.S. that they are unwilling to participate in military actions against Iran by the U.S. and Israel, and that the U.S. no longer needs help from NATO countries or others.

International Observation｜Europe and America Relations Face the “Strait of Hormuz” Test

Facing U.S. threats and pressure, several European countries stated on the 16th that they would not participate in the U.S.-proposed escort mission through the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly saying “this is not Europe’s war.” President Trump complained that European allies “don’t know how to repay kindness.”

Analysts believe that Europe’s non-cooperation is driven by domestic political pressures and practical considerations to avoid security risks, as well as a desire to morally distance themselves from the war actions. It can also be seen as a response to the previous “humiliations” inflicted by the Trump administration on Europe. As the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate, issues like escorting ships and the Ukraine situation are increasingly spilling over, deepening transatlantic rifts.

On March 11, the President of the European Commission, von der Leyen, spoke at the European Parliament plenary session in Strasbourg, France. She stated that military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East and caused European citizens to suffer billions of euros in losses. Xinhua News Agency (EU source)

“This is not Europe’s war”

The U.S. has been pressuring European allies for several days. On the 15th, Trump said that if NATO allies do not take action to help ensure the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, NATO will face a “very bad future.” The next day, he complained that some allies are “not enthusiastic” about helping the U.S., implying that these allies, once protected by the U.S., are “ungrateful.”

Trump’s threats and complaints have met “counterattacks” from many European countries.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Borrell, directly stated on the 16th that the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran “is not Europe’s war,” and “no one wants to get involved in this war.” EU member states have no intention of expanding current escort operations in the Red Sea and Gulf regions to the Strait of Hormuz.

Germany, Italy, Spain, and others have explicitly said they will not send ships to participate in escort missions. The Spanish Foreign Minister and Defense Minister directly called the U.S. military actions against Iran “illegal” and made it clear that Spain “will not join.” Portuguese Foreign Minister Rangel said on the 16th that Portugal “has no intention and will not get involved” in the current conflict. German Chancellor Mertens stated that the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict is not a NATO matter, and Germany will not participate.

France and the UK also expressed rejection or caution. The French Foreign Ministry said that the French Navy will not go to the Strait of Hormuz, and its current operations in the Eastern Mediterranean follow a “defensive principle.” The UK suggested that the “best and most comprehensive way” to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is to end the conflict.

Why is Europe “not following”?

Analysts believe that Europe’s lukewarm response to U.S. escort requests is due to three main considerations.

First, Europe does not want to pay for the troubles caused by the U.S. The U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran have not been authorized by the UN Security Council and were launched suddenly during diplomatic negotiations, resulting in significant civilian casualties, including children. This has caused widespread resentment among Europeans. Now, with the conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and driving up oil prices, the U.S. wants to rally allies for “joint escort,” but Europe is naturally reluctant to share the costs. Some Europeans have commented on social media: “The bill still came to Europe,” but “we won’t pay.”

Second, European countries are reluctant to assume the military risks of escorting ships. The Strait of Hormuz is extremely narrow, less than 40 kilometers at its narrowest point. Iran can threaten passing ships using missiles, drones, small surface vessels, and mines from its northern coast. The confined environment and tense conflict situation make collisions, misjudgments, and accidental strikes highly likely. The U.S. Navy experienced lessons in 1988 when ships struck mines and mistakenly shot down a civilian aircraft during escort missions in the Strait.

Third, European countries prefer diplomatic solutions. The UK, France, and Germany were key participants in the Iran nuclear deal negotiations and have experience and willingness to resolve Iran-related issues through diplomacy, which can also serve their strategic interests. Regarding the current U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, European countries are calling for diplomatic resolution. Borrell said on the 16th that the EU is actively promoting diplomatic solutions to the Strait of Hormuz situation.

Differences between the U.S. and Europe on Iran and escort operations further reveal and deepen the rift. Notably, Iran has previously stated that it would close the Strait of Hormuz only to “enemies and their allies, and to aggressors attacking our country.” To some extent, if European countries participate in the U.S.-proposed escort, it would be akin to standing against Iran.

U.S. “Strategic Assist” to Russia?

Many European analysts believe that the spillover effects of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on Ukraine are also a significant factor in the growing rift between the U.S. and Europe.

First, increased oil revenues give Russia a “breathing space.” Due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have risen to their highest levels since mid-2022. As a major oil producer, Russia benefits from high oil prices, increasing its income. To stabilize prices, the U.S. has also relaxed some sanctions on Russian oil exports, including granting India a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil. Some European analysts see this as giving Russia, which has been under Western sanctions, a rare respite.

This photo was taken during the “Duzon Cobra 2018” joint missile defense drill at the Hazor Air Force Base in Israel on March 8, 2018. Xinhua News Agency, Guo Yu

Second, Ukraine’s air defense capabilities are weakened. The U.S.-made Patriot missile system is crucial for Ukraine’s defense. The U.S. and its Middle Eastern allies have used large quantities of Patriot missiles to intercept Iranian missiles and drones. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the number of Patriots used in the first few days of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict exceeded Ukraine’s total usage in recent years. European media believe that as the conflict continues, more Patriots will be deployed to the Middle East, leaving gaps in Ukraine’s air defense. This increases European anxiety and concern.

Finally, the growing disputes between the U.S. and Europe over the conflict expand Russia’s strategic space. After disagreements over military burden-sharing, tariffs, and Greenland sovereignty, the new rift over escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz is welcomed by Russia. European analysts believe this “new internal conflict” will further turn U.S. aid to Ukraine into a bargaining chip. For Russia, a NATO with increasing trust issues provides more strategic room for future confrontation with the U.S. and Europe. (Reporters: Liu Pinran, Liu Zan, Song Ying)

World Watch｜Can Gulf Oil Transport Bypass the Strait of Hormuz?

According to data from maritime analytics firm Windward on the 15th, no ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 14th, the first time since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, whereas before the conflict, an average of 77 ships passed daily. Due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, on the evening of the 15th, when international crude oil futures began trading for the new week, prices again surged past $100 per barrel.

Whenever tensions or war erupt, the Strait of Hormuz almost always experiences shipping disruptions or blockages, leading to spikes in global oil prices. Given the region’s rich oil resources, have Gulf countries tried to find alternative routes for exporting oil? Is the Strait of Hormuz truly irreplaceable as the world’s key maritime oil transit route?

This photo, taken near the Strait of Hormuz on July 21, 2019, shows the British-flagged oil tanker “Stena Impero.” Xinhua News Agency / Iranian Student News Agency

Limited Oil Pipelines

Oil pipelines are the main alternatives for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but there are few such pipelines in the region, mainly two: from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The Abu Dhabi Oil Pipeline in the UAE starts from the main oil-producing region of Habshan and extends east to the port of Fujairah, officially operational since July 2012. The pipeline is 420 km long, with about 405 km on land and 13.6 km underwater, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, thus bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipelines were built during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, running from the eastern oil fields in the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The total length exceeds 1,200 km. Saudi Aramco’s President and CEO, Nasser, recently said the maximum sustained daily capacity is 12 million barrels, and they are maximizing the use of these pipelines to maintain supply.

According to the International Energy Agency, since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, over a quarter of crude oil and diesel transported through the Strait of Hormuz still exit the Gulf region mainly via these two pipelines.

U.S. consumer and business channel CNBC, citing energy analysts, reports that about 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. In comparison, Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipelines have a capacity of nearly 7 million barrels per day, with 2 million barrels supplied to western refineries and only 5 million barrels exported. The Abu Dhabi pipeline’s rated capacity is 1.5 million barrels per day. However, due to the high risk of military strikes on oil infrastructure, analysts are conservative about current actual throughput, estimating it to be just over 70% of the rated capacity.

A photo released by the Thai Navy on March 11 shows a Thai cargo ship caught fire after an attack in the waters near the Strait of Hormuz. Xinhua News Agency (Thai Navy)

The Strait of Hormuz Is Irreplaceable

The New York Times reported on the 14th that to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for oil transportation, many Gulf countries would need to build cross-border pipelines. However, due to geographic, political, and economic factors, laying transnational pipelines is costly and politically complex. Qatar, for example, severed diplomatic ties with the UAE in 2017 and only restored relations in 2023.

Even avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, pipelines are not entirely safe. Former BP CEO John Browne said that oil and natural gas facilities could become targets of attack, and there is no “completely safe” solution. In May 2019, the Saudi east-west pipeline was interrupted after an attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Besides pipelines, establishing a unified rail system for passenger and freight transport is another option to bypass the Strait. Although proposed over a decade ago, practical implementation remains uncertain. The NYT notes that compared to pipeline construction, building a comprehensive oil export system involving multiple countries is more difficult due to economic and political constraints.

In response to U.S. efforts to block oil exports, Iran in July 2021 activated a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, extending about 1,000 km from Ghol in Iran’s Bushehr Province to Jask port on the Oman Gulf.

Nevertheless, the Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical maritime route for oil transportation. As the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the outside world, over a quarter of global maritime oil trade and about one-fifth of liquefied natural gas shipments pass through this strait.

The International Energy Agency estimates that since the conflict’s outbreak, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have sharply declined to less than 10% of pre-conflict levels. Many oil-exporting countries have reduced production due to lack of transportation channels. Norway’s Rystad Energy estimates that Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia collectively reduced their oil output by several million barrels over the past week.

As of the 11th, the region’s oil-producing countries are estimated to have collectively cut at least 10 million barrels per day, about 10% of global supply. With many refineries shutting down or reducing capacity, the production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is also decreasing. (Author: Yuan Yuan)

Source: Xinhua News Agency

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