BTC Rebound Still in Correction Phase, HYPE Main Uptrend Initiated | Featured Analysis

Last week, the cryptocurrency market continued its oscillating trend. Bitcoin experienced a phased rebound after a rapid decline earlier, but from the overall structure and volume perspective, the current market remains in a weak zone of sideways fluctuation, and the mid-term trend has not fundamentally changed.

In this market environment, we continue to strictly follow the established trading system: on one hand, closely monitoring the HYPE Wave III main upward structure evolution, and on the other hand, conducting short-term spread trading and medium-term trend position management around the BTC range-bound pattern.

This weekly report will systematically review and analyze last week’s market structure, trading execution, and potential market evolution paths for this week, providing corresponding trading strategy references.

Core Summary of the Trading Weekly Report:

• Deep analysis of HYPE multi-cycle trend structure: weekly tracking. (See Part One)

• Validation of HYPE short-term trading effectiveness: last week, HYPE completed a short-term long position (1x leverage), successfully achieving approximately 18.44% profit. (See Table One)

• Validation of BTC strategy execution (short-term): last week, Bitcoin followed the established short-term strategy, completing a short position (1x leverage), with a profit of about 2.01%. (See Table Two)

• Validation of BTC strategy execution (mid-term): last week, Bitcoin continued holding a short position built at around $89,000 (1x leverage), with a profit of approximately 18.17% as of last week’s close (about $72,831), with a maximum profit of about 32.58% during the period.

• Core short-term viewpoint validation: Bitcoin maintained a weak range-bound oscillation last week. The current trend aligns with expectations.

• This week’s market trend forecast and medium- and short-term trading strategies.

I. HYPE: Trend Structure Analysis and Short-term Trading Review

1. Continuous tracking of HYPE market dynamics and investment opportunities

• February 23 Weekly Review: First indicated that HYPE might enter an investment window, noting the market was in Wave II correction phase, and preliminarily forecasted the subsequent Wave III main upward movement.

• March 3 Weekly Review: Determined that the February 24 low at $25.60 could be the start point of Wave III, confirming the trend reversal position.

• March 9 Weekly Review: Noted that the price had effectively broken through multiple moving average resistances on the daily chart, then entered a retracement consolidation phase, which is a momentum accumulation process. After this, a rapid rise is expected.

2. Overview of HYPE daily trend structure (based on market evolution after January 21):

• Wave I (Driving Wave): from the low of $20.46 on January 21 to the high of $38.41 on February 3, lasting 14 days, with a maximum increase of 87.73%.

• Wave II (Correction Wave): from the high of $38.41 on February 3 to the low of $25.60 on February 24, lasting 20 days, with a maximum decline of 33.35%.

• Wave III (Main Upward Wave): from the low of $25.60 on February 24 to the recent high of $38.85 on March 14, successfully breaking through Wave I’s top at $38.41, confirming Wave III’s formation. As of now, 20 days have passed, with a maximum increase of 51.76%, and the main upward trend continues.

3. HYPE hourly detailed structure (based on market after March 8):

[Insert HYPE 60-minute candlestick chart]

• Review of hourly trend structure (03.02–03.08): In the March 9 weekly review, we identified that the adjustment starting from March 2 can be divided into five segments: 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, 12-13, 13-14. Analysis shows clear bottom divergence signals at the end of segment (9-10) and exit of segment (13-14). Therefore, we judged that the correction likely ended at point 14 (around $29.67).

• The rally from the low at point 14 (March 8) can be divided into 10 segments from points 14 to 24, forming the upward impulsive wave. As of analysis, this upward structure is still ongoing.

• Central construction: within these 10 segments, segments 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, and 23-24 are forming an upward central zone.

4. Core view this week: The current market is in Wave III. After the central zone completes, the key to the subsequent trend is whether the price can effectively break free from the central zone’s influence. Expect a high probability of range-bound oscillation this week.

5. HYPE short-term trading review (1x leverage): (03.09–03.15)

Last week, based on our self-developed spread trading model and momentum quantification model signals, combined with the Wave III upward forecast, we executed a short-term (long) position, achieving a profit of 18.44%.

[Insert Table One]

• Entry decision (see Figure Two): This decision integrated trend, structure, and quantitative signals. First, we judged that the hourly correction structure ended at point 14 (~$29.67). Then, the price effectively broke above the previous upper resistance (~$31.33). Based on bottom resonance signals from the spread and momentum models, we opened a 30% long position at $31.40.

• Exit decision: When the models signaled a top resonance near the Wave I top (~$38.41), and the price approached that level, we closed the position around $37.19.

• Trade summary: Successfully captured the Wave III upward opportunity, with a profit of about 18.44%.

HYPE 60-minute candlestick chart

[Insert short-term trading illustration]

II. Bitcoin: Trend Structure Analysis and Medium-/Short-term Trading Review

1. Short-term trading strategy review: (see Table Two)

We strictly followed our self-developed spread trading and momentum quantification signals, combined with market trend forecasts, to complete one short (short) position last week, with a profit of 2.01%.

① Summary of Bitcoin short-term trades: (leverage *1)

[Insert Table Two]

② Short-term trade review: (see Figure Three)

• Entry: Price rebounded near $74,500 and faced resistance, with the spread trading model triggering a strong top warning (green dot). Both models’ short signals confirmed, so we established a 30% short position at $72,496.

• Exit: Price fell to around $70,500, with the spread model signaling a bottom (red dot). We closed all positions around $71,039.

Bitcoin 30-minute candlestick chart: (Momentum + Spread models)

[Insert short-term trade illustration]

2. Medium-term strategy review:

Hold the 60% short position built at around $89,000 (January 28) until last week’s close (~$72,831), with a profit of approximately 18.17%.

III. Bitcoin: Weekly and Daily Technical Indicator Analysis

Combining market operation insights, I analyze Bitcoin’s multiple technical indicators from a multi-model and multi-dimensional perspective within our trading system.

1. Weekly level analysis (see Figure Four):

Bitcoin weekly candlestick chart: (Momentum + Sentiment Quantification Models)

[Insert Figure Four]

• Momentum model: Indicators show momentum lines trending downward, with the white momentum line flattening, negative energy bars shrinking, no divergence signals.

• Sentiment model: Blue sentiment line at 26, zero strength; yellow at 13, zero strength; peak value is 0.

• Digital monitoring: Moving averages show a bearish alignment, last week’s large bullish candle increased about 10.39%, and the price first closed above the 7-week moving average; no bottom signals appeared.

Overall assessment: The market rebound last week was strong, with multiple technical indicators improving and oversold conditions easing. However, we believe the weekly bearish trend has not reversed, and the large bullish candle needs further confirmation for sustainability.

2. Daily level analysis (see Figure Five):

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart: (Momentum + Sentiment Models)

[Insert Figure Five]

• Momentum model: Last week, the overall pattern was “oscillating upward.” Momentum lines above zero are rising in sync, with the white line crossing zero for the first time; positive energy bars are strengthening but weak.

• Sentiment model: After Sunday’s close, blue sentiment at 31, zero strength; purple at 75, zero strength, with a significant rise in purple.

Overall assessment: Despite seven consecutive bullish daily candles last week indicating strong short-term rebound momentum, trading volume did not increase proportionally. The overall trend remains in oversold rebound territory, still within range-bound oscillation. The daily bearish trend persists, and future focus should be on the battle around the key zero line.

IV. Market Forecast for This Week (03.16–03.22)

1. Bitcoin’s central zone construction (based on the low after February 6): (Weekly update)

Bitcoin 4-hour candlestick chart

[Insert Figure Six]

Using the 4-hour cycle:

• Central zone construction: As shown in the chart, last week mainly operated within segments 12-13. Currently, the upward central zone is forming. Resistance moved up to about $74,090, support down to about $62,500; upper boundary around $68,800, lower boundary around $66,250.

2. Judgment on Wave C-2 rebound end:

• Maintain previous core analysis: The upward trend from the February 6 low (~$60,000) is a large-scale C wave correction, with C-2 wave being an oversold rebound, followed by C-3 wave correction.

• C-2 rebound end judgment: If the price effectively breaks below the lower support of the central zone (~$66,250) during correction and cannot re-establish above it upon rebound, this constitutes a third type of sell point per Chánlùn theory. This indicates strong downward momentum, and the rebound structure may be broken, significantly increasing the likelihood that C-2 rebound has ended.

3. Core view: Maintain a range of $62,500–$74,500, observing the battle near the upper and lower edges. Special attention to the price’s behavior after breaking below the lower support (~$66,250). Strategy: stick to “reduce positions on rallies (longs), manage risk.”

4. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance: around $74,500 (near previous important lows)

• Second resistance: between $79,500 and $80,600 (near November 2025 lows)

5. Key support levels:

• First support: around $65,000 (important previous support zone)

• Second support: between $60,000 and $62,500 (near February 6 low)

• Third support: around $57,400

V. Trading Strategy for This Week (excluding sudden news impacts): (03.16–03.22)

1. Medium-term strategy: (see Figure Seven)

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

[Insert Figure Seven]

Position monitoring: Currently, the price is below the long/short floating band (yellow). Continue holding the 60% short position established at $89,000 (January 28).

• If the price rebounds effectively above $74,500, reduce the medium-term position to 40%.

• If the price breaks above the long/short band and stabilizes, close all medium-term positions.

2. Short-term strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss points based on support and resistance levels, and look for spread trading opportunities (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles).

3. Due to the medium-term trend being bearish, and to dynamically respond to market evolution combined with signals from our self-built trading models, we prepare two short-term plans:

Plan A: Resistance encountered on rebound, short at high.

• Entry: When the price continues to rebound near $74,500 and triggers resistance signals, combined with model top signals, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss at above $76,000.

• Exit: When the price drops near key support levels and model signals confirm, gradually close positions for profit.

Plan B: Breakout short position.

• Entry: When the price effectively breaks below the central zone support (~$66,250) and then retraces without stabilizing above, combined with top signals, establish a 30% short.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss at above $67,500.

• Exit: When the price falls to support levels and signals confirm, gradually close for profit.

VI. Special Reminders:

1. When opening a position: immediately set an initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move stop-loss to the entry cost (break-even).

3. When profit reaches 2%: move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continue monitoring: for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are highly volatile; all analysis and trading strategies should be adjusted dynamically. All viewpoints, models, and operational strategies in this document are based on personal technical analysis only, for personal trading logs, and do not constitute investment advice or operational basis. Market risks are inherent; please trade cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this information.