US Treasury Department Enters Crazy Oil Short Selling? CBOT Issues Urgent Warning: An Epic Disaster in the Making

On March 13, The Financial Times reported that CME Group, the world’s largest futures exchange operator, recently issued a stern warning to the Trump administration: if the government intervenes in the derivatives market to suppress oil prices during the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger an “epic disaster.”

CME: Government Intervention Will Destroy Market Confidence

Terry Duffy, CEO of CME Group, clearly stated at a conference in Boca Raton, Florida, this week that if the U.S. government intervenes in the futures market to curb rising crude oil prices, it will severely undermine market confidence.

“Markets don’t like government price intervention,” Duffy said. If investors lose faith in the market’s ability to set key commodity prices, such intervention could lead to catastrophic consequences.

Previously, media reports indicated that the U.S. Treasury was considering measures, including market intervention, to lower oil prices. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced the release of strategic petroleum reserves as the latest attempt to curb crude oil prices.

Who is the “mysterious seller”? Market hints at the U.S. Treasury

Recent extreme volatility in the crude oil market has caused traders to become nervous. On Monday, Brent crude oil prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel before plummeting sharply, quickly falling below $100.

This unexplained large-volume trading has sparked speculation about a “behind-the-scenes player.” Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at consultancy Energy Aspects, revealed that his clients have been asking, “Who is that big seller?” Market speculation suggests the sell-off may have come directly from the U.S. Treasury.

Although Rapidan Energy Group considers such actions “unprecedented,” its analysts wrote in a report that, given the current panic, the possibility of the U.S. Treasury selling near-month crude futures cannot be completely ruled out.

The U.S. Treasury has refused to comment. However, a person familiar with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s thinking denied any market intervention by the agency. The U.S. Department of Energy also stated that it is not involved in oil derivatives trading.

Energy Secretary’s “Oopsy” Post Sparks Fraud Allegations

In addition to market sell-off rumors, confusing actions by government officials have further increased market instability.

On Tuesday, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm posted on X (formerly Twitter) that the U.S. Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to drop sharply. However, the post was deleted within minutes, and the White House subsequently denied the escort. On Thursday, Granholm clarified that Navy escorting is unlikely to begin before the end of the month.

John Evans, an analyst at London-based PVM Oil Associates, commented that it’s unclear whether Granholm’s post was “another complete blunder” or a more serious case of “fraud.”

Analysts point out that, besides market intervention, alternative government measures to lower oil prices include suspending federal gasoline taxes, relaxing fuel environmental regulations, or temporarily banning U.S. oil exports.