Trump was warned of likely Iranian retaliation on Gulf allies, sources say

• Summary

• Iranian strikes hit Gulf states, affecting U.S. and Emirates military bases

• Democrats report no imminent threat justifying the war

WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump was warned that attacking Iran could trigger retaliation against U.S. Gulf allies despite his claims on Monday ​that Tehran’s reaction came as a surprise, said a U.S. official and two sources familiar with U.S. intelligence reports.

Pre-war ‌intelligence assessments did not say that Iran’s response was “a guarantee, but it certainly was on the list of potential outcomes,” said one source, who like the other two requested anonymity to discuss the issue.

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The president twice on Monday said that Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait were ​a surprise, the first time at a Kennedy Center board meeting in the White House.

“They (Iran) weren’t supposed to go after all ​these other countries in the Middle East,” he said. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”

Trump’s assertion followed other administration claims ⁠that have not been backed by U.S. intelligence reporting, such as that Iran would soon have a missile capable of hitting the U.S. ​homeland and that it would need two to four weeks to make a nuclear bomb and would then use it.

Those allegations and an imminent ​threat posed by Iran to the U.S. and its forces in the region have been among varying reasons that Trump and some top aides have given to justify his decision to join Israel in launching their air war against Iran on February 28.

Trump was also briefed ahead of the operation that Tehran would likely seek ​to close the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to two other sources familiar with the matter.

Over the past two weeks, Iranian drones ​and missiles have struck targets in the Gulf states that have included U.S. military bases and an Emirates base hosting French troops, civilian structures, including hotels, airports, and ‌energy ⁠facilities.

Iran has also halted almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of oil supplies move, causing global energy prices to spike.

Democratic lawmakers emerged from administration briefings on the war last week saying they heard of no imminent threat that required the U.S. and Israel to launch the war.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to ​comment.

WARNINGS OF A REGIONAL WAR

The U.S. ​official said that Trump was ⁠briefed before the war that striking Iran could trigger a broader regional conflict that would include Iranian retaliation against Gulf capitals, especially if Tehran saw those countries condoning or actively supporting the U.S. attacks.

Trump repeated his ​claim later on Monday during a signing event in the Oval Office. He was asked if he ​was surprised that ⁠nobody had briefed him about that risk that Iran would strike back at the Gulf states.

“Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit,” replied Trump.

The second source familiar with the matter said that before the U.S.-Israeli attacks, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that Israel’s ⁠plan to ​launch strikes aimed at killing top Iranian leaders likely would result in retaliation against ​U.S. military and diplomatic outposts.

The administration did not order departures of diplomatic staff from several regional embassies until after the air strikes began.

The community also warned that Iran “could” widen its ​retaliation to American allies in the region, the source said.

Reporting by Jonathan Landay, Phil Stewart and Erin Banco; Editing by Don Durfee and Michael Perry

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Phil Stewart

Thomson Reuters

Phil Stewart has reported from more than 60 countries, including Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China and South Sudan. An award-winning Washington-based national security reporter, Phil has appeared on NPR, PBS NewsHour, Fox News and other programs and moderated national security events, including at the Reagan National Defense Forum and the German Marshall Fund. He is a recipient of the Edwin M. Hood Award for Diplomatic Correspondence and the Joe Galloway Award.

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Erin Banco

Thomson Reuters

Erin Banco is a national security correspondent focusing on the intelligence community. She covers everything from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza to U.S. covert operations overseas. She previously worked at POLITICO as a national security reporter. Banco has a long history covering the Middle East region, from Cairo to Baghdad to Aleppo where she’s reported on the Arab Spring and its aftermath, including the civil war in Syria and the rise of ISIS. Her 2017 book, Pipe Dreams, focuses on the development of the oil and gas industry in the northern Kurdistan region of Iraq. Banco attended The University of Wisconsin-Madison, where she majored in Arabic and journalism. She earned a master’s in public administration from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs in 2014.

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