Positive news emerging, data warming up Real estate market "little spring" can be expected! These three high-dividend targets attract fund buying

On the morning of March 17, the real estate sector fluctuated and rose, with Jingneng Real Estate, Jingtou Development, and Zhongzhou Holdings leading the charge, hitting the daily limit. Many other stocks, including Huaxia Happiness, Dalong Real Estate, and Beichen Industrial, also followed the upward trend.

Industry insiders pointed out that as inventory indicators reach a turning point, signs of stabilized prices strengthen, and policy effects continue to be released, market confidence is gradually recovering. The “small spring” market rally is worth looking forward to.

Several Real Estate Indicators Show Early Signs of Warmth

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 16 show that in February, the month-over-month decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow. The number of cities where new home prices increased month-over-month rose by 5 compared to the previous month. In first-tier cities, new home prices remained flat, shifting from a 0.3% decline last month to stability. Beijing and Shanghai both increased by 0.2%, while Guangzhou remained unchanged.

Industry experts believe that the continued narrowing of month-over-month declines in housing prices and the first-tier cities’ new home prices stabilizing are direct signs of market warming. The increase in the number of cities with rising prices further confirms the market’s recovery.

Additionally, from January to February, nationwide real estate development investment saw a 6.1 percentage point narrower decline compared to the full year of 2022. By the end of February, the year-over-year growth rate of unsold commercial housing area slowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the end of 2022.

Yan Yuejin, Deputy Director of the Shanghai E-House Research Institute, pointed out that although real estate development investment indicators are still in negative growth territory, they have shown a clear narrowing trend compared to the full year of 2022. This change reflects that supply-side adjustments are gradually stabilizing.

Shanghai Lowers Commercial Property Purchase Threshold Again

Not only are data showing signs of improvement, but favorable policies are also emerging in the housing market.

On March 16, the People’s Bank of China Shanghai Branch, together with the Shanghai Regulatory Bureau of the National Financial Supervision and Administration, issued a notice on adjusting the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property purchases in Shanghai.

The notice clarifies that starting immediately, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties (including “commercial-residential mixed-use” properties) in Shanghai is adjusted to no less than 30%. This is another “stabilization” measure following the implementation of the “Shanghai Seven Policies” on February 26, and marks the first change in Shanghai’s commercial and office mortgage policies in nearly 20 years.

Earlier, the People’s Bank of China and the Financial Regulatory Administration announced on January 17 that the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties (including “commercial-residential mixed-use” properties) would be adjusted to no less than 30%. Before this policy, most cities in China typically required a 50% down payment for commercial properties, with some banks or specific projects requiring 60% or higher.

Short-term Market Outlook Still Positive

Zhang Bo, President of 58.com Anjuke Research Institute, said, “February’s housing price data already sent clear positive signals, showing a structural recovery. The performance of core cities in first- and second-tier regions has become the main driver of this recovery. This structural rebound indicates that supply and demand are increasingly aligned, and the market’s steady improvement makes the ‘small spring’ market rally worth expecting.”

Yan Yuejin also believes that as supply-side adjustments become sufficient and inventory pressures ease, if potential housing demand continues to be released, the process of market supply-demand rebalancing could accelerate, leading to steady transaction volume growth and price stabilization. Under multiple positive factors, a “small spring” market rally is expected, with the whole year potentially showing gradual stabilization and improvement.

Latest research from Dongfang Securities indicates that high-frequency data shows a strong performance of the spring market this year. Coupled with policy expectations from the April Politburo meeting, the policy game and fundamentals are unlikely to be disproved in the short term. Therefore, the industry pulse is expected to remain positive in the near future.

Three High-Dividend Stocks Attracting Attention

According to Eastmoney Industry Sector data, there are currently over 80 stocks in the A-share market classified under real estate development, with a total market value exceeding 1 trillion yuan. Among them, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Zhangjiang High-Tech are the top three by market cap. Vanke A, Lujiazui, and Xincheng Holdings also have market caps over 30 billion yuan.

Since the beginning of the year, nearly 70% of real estate development stocks have seen their share prices rise, with two stocks doubling in value. Today, Jingtou Development, which nearly hit the daily limit, surged 1.5 times and led the gains. Jingneng Real Estate also doubled in price. *ST Rongkang, Tibet Urban Investment, and *ST Sunshine all gained over 40% in the range.

Data from Eastmoney Choice shows that 11 real estate development stocks have a dividend yield (TTM) exceeding 2%. China World Trade Center and Jinbin Development have dividend yields of 5.43% and 4.19%, respectively. Nanjing High-Tech and Suning Global also have dividend yields above 3%.

Notably, among these 11 high-dividend stocks, three received attention from leveraged funds this month. Poly Developments was favored with 130 million yuan in financing, while Suning Global and Huafa Group had net financing purchases of 12.81 million yuan and 3.65 million yuan, respectively.

(Source: Oriental Wealth Research Center)