Interpreting the "15th Five-Year Plan" Outline | How to Understand the Four "Growth Points" and Two "Unconventional" Strategies?

On March 13, the “Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outline”) was officially released.

The Daily Economic News reporter noticed that the “Outline” highlights four “growth points” and two “extraordinary measures.”

What are the potential “growth points” for the next five years? What are the development paths? How should we understand the “unconventional layout”? What are the possible ways to implement the “unconventional measures”? The reporter conducted interviews on these topics.

Driving New Economic Growth Points in Future Industries

“Growth Point” ①

The “Outline” proposes focusing on key areas leading future development, establishing a comprehensive cultivation system for future industries, and promoting quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communication, among others, as new growth points for the economy.

Many of these fields are currently in laboratories or early demonstration stages. What are the critical crossing points from “technological breakthroughs” to “industrial explosion” in the next five years?

Wan Zhe, Professor at Beijing Normal University and researcher at the Belt and Road Institute: The core crossing point is technological maturity, while cost reduction is key to industrialization. Specifically, there are five points.

First, achieving breakthroughs in engineering and pilot-scale transformation. The main challenge is solving the bottleneck where laboratory samples cannot be mass-produced on production lines. Pathways include building proof-of-concept centers and public pilot platforms to overcome the bottleneck from laboratory samples to large-scale products, focusing on process stability, safety, and product consistency, significantly improving product completion levels. This process is essentially a critical leap from “1 to 10.”

Second, validating scenarios and closing the loop of business models. This involves leveraging scenarios with rigid demand to drive technology, supported by mechanisms like government procurement to provide compensation, and opening up scenarios to create space for trial, error, and iteration for new technologies. Based on this, explore profitable and replicable business models. The ultimate goal is to reduce dependence on policy subsidies, fostering a positive cycle where scenario validation and business models promote each other, thereby accelerating application adoption.

Third, achieving full industry chain independence and building an ecosystem. Upstream, focus on breaking through bottlenecks in core components, key materials, and high-end equipment; downstream, work to reduce overall supply chain costs, leverage leading enterprises to drive development, cultivate specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, and form supporting systems and collaborative ecosystems to address the problem of isolated breakthroughs without a complete industry chain.

Fourth, improving standards and regulatory mechanisms. This includes technical standards, product standards, safety standards, and also addresses issues like computer ethics and AI ethics, establishing an inclusive yet cautious regulatory model. Future industries such as brain-computer interfaces, biomanufacturing, and quantum technology pose new challenges to social safety and ethics worldwide, necessitating the development of new standards and regulatory rules to ensure legal and institutional support for large-scale promotion.

Fifth, building a financial support system, developing long-term capital, and improving risk control and sharing mechanisms. Since future industries generally have long cycles, high investment, and high risks, they are mismatched with traditional short-term profit-driven investments. While government-guided funds have played a guiding role, there is still a need to introduce long-term capital, expand new services and financing channels like intellectual property financing, optimize equity structures, and establish investment, financing, and risk management systems suited to future industry characteristics. The investment philosophy should emphasize “early investment, small investments, hard technology, and soft power,” along with improving R&D risk-sharing mechanisms.

Three Major Industries Are Expected to Lead the Explosion

Which subfields are most likely to achieve scale and output first?

Wan Zhe: From the perspective of industry maturity, biomanufacturing is expected to be the first to explode. Currently, China accounts for over 70% of the global production of bioproducts, with many technologies entering the initial stages of commercialization. Looking ahead, fields driven by synthetic biology, such as pharmaceuticals and bio-feed proteins, may rapidly form industrial-scale output.

The new energy storage industry already has a solid foundation for industrialization. By the end of 2024, China’s installed capacity of new energy storage projects will account for over 40% of the global total, ranking first in the world.

In hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, hydrogen energy will develop more rapidly, including green hydrogen production and industrial applications, potentially reaching at least a trillion-yuan scale in output value. Large-scale application of nuclear fusion may still require more time.

In embodied intelligence, consumer robots and humanoid robots are currently highly focused, but industrial scenarios will be the first to realize commercialization. According to research, industrial embodied intelligent robots already have a commercial foundation. If core components can be domestically produced within five years to reduce costs, and algorithms improve in generalization, these robots could achieve large-scale deployment in industrial, logistics, and security fields, with relatively mature conditions.

Quantum technology is still in pilot stages, and large-scale application will take time. It is expected that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, there will be a transition from pilot projects to broader promotion.

Brain-computer interfaces face multiple constraints, including technical, ethical, and regulatory issues, but they have potential in medical rehabilitation. Based on international experience, the earliest applications are in medical rehabilitation, with market prospects in functional replacement for limb disabilities. While some segments may see progress, forming a substantial commercial scale will still take time.

6G technology will mainly be in the foundational stage during the “14th Five-Year Plan,” including R&D and standard-setting, with large-scale terminal applications expected to take longer.

Cultivating New Growth Points in Lifestyle Services

“Growth Point” ②

The “Outline” proposes focusing on public health, smart elderly care, cultural tourism, and home services to cultivate new growth points in lifestyle services.

“Growth Point” ③

The “Outline” emphasizes expanding service consumption by relaxing access restrictions and integrating business formats, aiming to cultivate new growth points in service consumption.

What are the key focus areas for cultivating new growth points in lifestyle services?

Wan Zhe: First, upgrading basic needs—this is the core foundation. It’s necessary to align with demographic changes, especially aging and declining birthrates, which are structural shifts driving changes in residents’ needs.

Second, driven by consumption upgrading. Residents’ demands are shifting from “whether it exists” to “whether it is good,” which is a clear trend. Focus areas include smart elderly care, cultural tourism, public health, and home services—these are also current pain points in public welfare. The key is to address the structural contradiction of excess low-end supply and shortage of high-quality, high-end supply, filling gaps in universal services while meeting upgraded, diverse, and high-quality needs, providing richer and more convenient living services to benefit people’s livelihoods and promote development in a positive cycle.

Third, expanding domestic demand as an engine. Currently, residents’ service consumption accounts for nearly half of overall consumption, becoming a core driver of growth. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for this year has adjusted the weight of service consumption, with indicators expected to rebound. Lifestyle services are closely related to people’s well-being, connect economic growth and employment expansion, and improving service quality can unleash trillions in potential consumption. This is crucial for smoothing the domestic cycle, establishing a long-term mechanism for expanding demand, and building a new development pattern.

Fourth, industry integration and business model innovation. Digital transformation and new forms of smart economy are continuously breaking down industry barriers and boundaries. Future efforts should deepen industry integration across sectors like culture, tourism, sports, commerce, healthcare, elderly care, and digital services, creating a comprehensive service system covering the entire lifecycle. This includes smart services, community-embedded services, and other forms that enable full coverage over time, extend into lower-tier markets, and leverage digital and intelligent technologies to expand the value and efficiency of the service industry, cultivating it into a new growth pole.

What are the cultivation paths?

Wan Zhe: It is necessary to relax market access, eliminate hidden barriers like “glass doors” in the service sector, encourage private capital to enter fields like elderly care, healthcare, cultural tourism, and childcare, and activate diverse business entities. Improve mechanisms such as government procurement of services, public-private partnerships, and private assistance, expand high-level opening-up of the service industry, and introduce advanced international service models and resources. Support service enterprises to grow stronger and foster small and micro enterprises, cultivating leading companies.

Deepen innovation in business formats and integration, using digitalization to upgrade services and expand scenarios. Develop new formats like internet healthcare, smart elderly care, digital cultural tourism, and instant retail, promoting cross-sector integration to meet diverse service needs across the entire lifecycle.

Optimize supply structures, address supply-demand gaps, especially expanding inclusive services, and promote the sinking of quality resources in areas like elderly and childcare services and primary healthcare.

Advance standardization and branding, improve service commitments and certification systems, establish credit systems for the service industry, and enhance consumer safety, trust, and satisfaction.

Improve policy support, innovate development models, and provide support in land use, financing, talent, tax relief, and fiscal subsidies to create a fair and orderly market environment.

Fostering New Growth Points in Mid-to-High-End Consumption

“Growth Point” ④

The “Outline” proposes cultivating new growth points in mid-to-high-end consumption, strengthening traditional brands, developing trendy domestic brands, expanding peripheral derivative products, and actively promoting “first launch” economy.

Where are the key focus areas for cultivating new growth points in mid-to-high-end consumption?

Wan Zhe: First, aligning with the core trend of consumption upgrading. China’s large market advantage, with a huge population and the world’s largest middle-income group, should meet the demand for quality, branding, culture, and experience consumption, addressing the mismatch between supply and demand in mid-to-high-end segments, promoting spillover and return of consumption, and matching high-quality supply with diverse, personalized, and high-end consumer needs.

Second, upgrading Chinese brands. Supply-side upgrades should focus on traditional brands and trendy domestic brands, driving transformation from “Made in China” to “Created in China” and “Intelligent China,” and advancing toward global innovation centers and Chinese brands. Strengthen the branding and premium capabilities of domestic brands, emphasizing cultural connotations and design, cultivating internationally competitive Chinese consumer brands to support growth in mid-to-high-end consumption.

Third, building a healthy supply-demand cycle. Upgraded supply and demand should promote each other. High-end consumer demand can drive upstream manufacturing and service industries to extend into higher value chains, fostering product innovation, technological upgrades, and business model innovation, creating a dynamic balance of “new demand leading new supply and new supply creating new demand,” thereby upgrading the entire industry and value chain.

Fourth, cultivating new consumption formats and scenarios. Develop new formats like first-launch economy, flagship stores, and peripheral derivatives to stimulate young consumers and expand consumption. Promote the construction of international consumer centers to enhance China’s influence in the global market. Facilitate visa policies for foreigners in China to attract global consumers, creating a balanced pattern of “bringing in” and “going out” in consumption.

What are the cultivation paths?

Wan Zhe: Implement brand enhancement initiatives, strengthen the domestic brand matrix, accelerate the cultivation of Chinese consumer brands, and improve product quality and brand premium.

Innovate consumption formats and scenarios, develop first-launch and flagship store economies, promote IP commercialization, peripheral derivatives, and customized experiential consumption, and encourage green and digital consumption to stimulate new consumption vitality.

Leverage technology, using AI and big data to improve supply-demand matching, develop flexible production, and enable efficient, low-cost personalized customization to better meet high-end consumer needs.

Optimize consumption infrastructure and environment, upgrade traditional commercial districts, strengthen intellectual property protection, enhance original design and trademark protection, improve after-sales and consumer rights mechanisms, and create a safe and trustworthy consumption environment.

Promote domestic and international market linkage, enhance China’s influence in global markets, align with international high standards, attract high-quality global consumption resources, support domestic brands to go global, and expand global marketing networks.