Bitcoin Market Under Pressure: Standard Chartered Revises Price Targets Lower

The cryptocurrency market continues to face significant headwinds. According to Standard Chartered’s analysis, a combination of declining investment appetite and increasing macroeconomic pressures is creating a challenging environment for Bitcoin. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, clearly indicated that warning signals from the U.S. economy and downward revisions in interest rate cut expectations have triggered a sharp retreat in crypto markets, leaving Bitcoin exposed to further prolonged declines.

When Rate Expectations Change: Impact on the Market

The macroeconomic landscape is undergoing a significant transformation. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s prospects for interest rate cuts have gradually faded, generating a wave of uncertainty in global financial markets. Standard Chartered emphasizes that this change in the macro environment has substantially amplified pressures on digital assets.

The bank has significantly revised its Bitcoin projections. The price target set for the end of 2026 has been lowered from $150,000 to $100,000—a notable adjustment reflecting a more conservative assessment of market dynamics. Additionally, the scenario has entirely dismissed the expectation that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2025, a threshold previously considered reasonable.

ETF Outflows and Institutional Resistance: Market Drivers

The market is also facing a negative dynamic related to ETF flows. A substantial outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs is further dampening demand. Since the market peaked in October 2025, total Bitcoin holdings in ETFs have decreased by about 100,000 coins—a figure highlighting a shift in sentiment among institutional investors.

Many investors who accumulated positions at an average price around $90,000 are now in unrealized losses. This raises real questions about a potential cascade of sales if market sentiment deteriorates further. Recent price movements—Bitcoin dropping to $60,008, the lowest in 16 months, before recovering toward $67,000—illustrate this volatility.

Meanwhile, institutional operators are reducing their allocations. The significant slowdown in corporate treasury purchases has curtailed large-scale institutional demand for digital assets. Kendrick reiterated that institutional buying no longer exerts the decisive influence it once did; instead, flows into index funds are taking a central role in driving market dynamics.

Standard Chartered’s analysis reveals a concerning statistic: currently, only about half of all circulating Bitcoin is in profit. While this proportion is relatively more moderate compared to previous bear cycles, it still indicates a market struggling to find new momentum. The shrinking number of profitable holders suggests increased market pressure and fuels the cautious attitude among traders and institutions.

Ethereum has also not been immune to this storm. Growing market rumors suggest it could retreat toward $1,400 if external pressures persist. Currently, Ethereum’s price hovers around $2,310, reflecting the sector’s ongoing volatility.

Standard Chartered Maintains Confidence: Why the Market Still Matters

Despite the clear short-term challenges, Standard Chartered has not abandoned a constructive long-term outlook. A key differentiator from previous cycles is that current price retracements have not triggered widespread disruptions on exchanges and liquidity platforms. Ongoing improvements in on-chain activity suggest that the ecosystem possesses underlying resilience worth noting.

This evidence supports a cautiously optimistic outlook despite recent market volatility. Standard Chartered reaffirmed its confidence in the long-term trajectory, maintaining its ambitious target of $500,000 for Bitcoin by 2030. This goal remains unchanged, indicating that beyond cyclical corrections, Standard Chartered continues to perceive strong fundamentals for the asset.