# Journalist Threatened with Death by Polymarket Bettors Over Israel Missile Strike Coverage

Recently, Emanuel Fabian, military correspondent for The Times of Israel, disclosed that he received death threats from Polymarket bettors for reporting on Iran's missile strikes against Israel.

These bettors attempted to pressure Fabian into modifying his reporting to influence the settlement outcome of a prediction contract involving over $14 million in funds.

The incident originated from a report on March 10, in which Fabian cited Israeli military sources reporting that Iranian missiles struck an open area near the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh.

According to the relevant contract on Polymarket, the result is determined as "yes" only if the missile was not intercepted and struck Israeli territory, but if it was intercepted, it does not fall into this category.

To influence the contract settlement direction, bettors sent death threats to Fabian through various communication channels, threatening to "take action" against him if he did not change "missile struck" to "already intercepted."

Despite the report directly triggering panic and aggressive reactions from opposing bettors, Fabian did not capitulate under pressure. He firmly refused to falsify the published information and ultimately chose to report the matter to authorities.

This extreme incident once again exposes the potential moral hazards of prediction markets. As platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi expand, contract trading surrounding wars and elections surges, and the specter of market manipulation and insider trading emerges.

Previously, blockchain analysis firms discovered that certain on-chain addresses earned approximately $1.2 million in profits by placing precise bets before the U.S. launched strikes against Iran, triggering regulatory scrutiny over insider trading.

Fortunately, Washington lawmakers proposed the "Death Bets Prohibition Act" earlier this month, aiming to ban prediction contracts related to war, assassination, and death from a legislative level.

Despite ongoing controversy, trading volumes in prediction markets continue to climb. Data shows that Kalshi and Polymarket reached trading volumes of $10.4 billion and $7.9 billion respectively in February, with expectations to set new highs in March.

However, the case of Fabian's threats also sounds an alarm for the industry: while pursuing prediction accuracy, how to establish protective mechanisms to prevent market incentives from negatively impacting the real world has become an urgent problem to solve.

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