Just now! $BTC surged with eight consecutive bullish candles to $76,000, surpassing gold amidst the chaos. Options data shows a $2.5 billion "magnetic trap," with the FOMC as the final turning point!

$BTC reached $76,000 during intraday trading on March 16, marking eight consecutive days of gains, a six-week high, and nearly a 4% increase in a single day. This price has approached a key resistance zone since late January. Since the outbreak of geopolitical conflict on February 28, $BTC has risen nearly 20%, while gold has fallen about 3%, and the S&P 500 has declined around 2%. $BTC’s relative performance has outpaced almost all mainstream assets.

Data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network’s futures contracts have liquidated $610 million, with $485 million in short positions. Market sentiment indicators have shifted from “extreme fear” to “fear,” and the Greed and Fear Index has risen to 28.

The improvement in market sentiment is due to easing geopolitical risks. U.S. officials told the media that, for the first time since the conflict began, an oil tanker was allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, markets worried that a blockade of this strait would disrupt about 20% of global oil shipments, causing oil prices to surge to a three-year high. As expectations of de-escalation grew, the rally in crude oil was restrained. WTI crude futures traded in the range of $92.93 to $94.17 per barrel, while Brent opened at $105.26 per barrel.

Supported by a strengthening dollar, spot gold retreated to around $1,510 per ounce. The divergence between $BTC and gold warrants attention; initially both were seen as safe-haven assets during the conflict, but $BTC’s performance has begun to significantly outperform gold.

There are three main reasons driving $BTC’s upward momentum. First, the easing of geopolitical risks has boosted market risk appetite. Elevated oil prices have increased inflation expectations, which is unfavorable for liquidity-sensitive assets. The signal of reopening the strait has prompted market re-pricing.

Second, $BTC is increasingly acting as a non-dollar safe-haven asset. During this conflict, $BTC did not decline in tandem with stocks; instead, it strengthened against the trend. Market observers note that since the war began, $BTC has outperformed gold, stocks, and all other major safe assets. This contrasts with its initial correlation with risk assets during the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, indicating a changing perception of its properties.

Third, the options structure around the $75,000 strike price has created a “magnetic effect.” Crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that options expiring on March 20 near the $74,000 level have about $180 million in long gamma exposure, which tends to suppress volatility through market maker hedging. However, the options structure expiring on March 27 shows a clear shift.

At the $75,000 strike, there are 9,685 open call options compared to only 2,711 puts, with calls dominating. More importantly, from February 28 to March 14, the net premium of call options at this strike surged from $5.8 million to $19.8 million, even when $BTC was still in the $66,000–$68,000 range, indicating early bullish positioning.

From the gamma risk perspective, there is approximately a -$2.56 billion short gamma exposure near the $75,000 level. In a short gamma environment, as the price approaches this strike, market makers’ delta changes rapidly, forcing continuous hedging in the direction of the price movement—buying as prices rise—creating a typical “Gamma magnetic effect.”

Above $80,000, there is a $420 million long gamma position, which will cause market makers to shift their hedging, suppressing volatility and creating strong resistance. Below $65,000–$67,000, a $390 million long gamma buffer exists, but the open interest in this zone is significantly weaker than at $75,000 and $80,000, making it more of a buffer than a strong support.

This week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting may be the most direct stress test for $BTC recently. Futures markets show over a 99% probability of holding interest rates steady. Historically, $BTC has declined after 7 of the 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, with an average drop of 14%.

However, this policy environment is more complex. Brent crude has broken above $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation concerns; non-farm payrolls in February unexpectedly weakened, putting pressure on the labor market outlook. The conflicting signals from these two major indicators sharply narrow the room for monetary policy adjustments.

For Fed Chair Powell, this will be his penultimate meeting before his term ends in May. The next rate change may only occur after the new nominee officially takes over the Fed. Additionally, ongoing legal proceedings related to the Department of Justice’s subpoenas could interfere with the confirmation process of his successor.

For $BTC, if Powell can convey confidence in the inflation trend or hint at an interest rate cut within the year during his press conference, it would be the most favorable scenario; but if he reiterates hawkish stances or uses ambiguous language under political pressure, the risk of a short-term correction will rise significantly.

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