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Market Bearish Sentiment Remains Strong, Hidden Reasons Behind Dollar Depreciation
Despite the continued strong performance of the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve may keep its policy unchanged for a long time, but this has failed to support a rebound in the dollar. ChainCatcher, citing reports from Jinshi, pointed out that this phenomenon indicates that the market’s bearish bias has become widespread, ringing alarm bells for investors who rely on U.S. fundamentals for support.
Deepening Bearish Sentiment and Weakening Fundamental Support
Corpay strategist Karl Shamota emphasized that even strong non-farm payroll data cannot reverse the current bearish outlook. This reflects a high consensus in the market that the dollar’s prospects are pessimistic. The Fed maintaining a steady policy stance in the short term should have been a strong support for the dollar, but it appears powerless in the face of prevailing bearish sentiment.
Historical Perspective: Limited Dollar Decline, Room for Further Adjustment
From a historical standpoint, the current decline of the dollar is relatively moderate and has not reached extreme levels. However, if bearish sentiment continues to spread without any significant change in attitude, the dollar still has room to depreciate further. The current bearish consensus has become the dominant logic in market operation, leaving room for additional downside.