March 17 Pre-Market Core Strategy

1 Overall Market Analysis [Taogu Ba]

1.1 Time Nodes and Trend Forecast
(1) Wednesday (March 18) is a critical turning point.
(2) Today is expected to be a correction; the strength depends on trading volume. If the 60-minute consolidation forms a bottom structure, a small rebound may occur, but it is not a major low, and risks are not fully eliminated.
(3) If today’s decline is worse than expected, Wednesday remains an opportunity point; some funds may start early positioning this afternoon.

1.2 Key Levels and Ranges
(1) The dividing line between bulls and bears: 4050 points. A valid break below indicates a shift to high-level consolidation, with a target down to 4000 points.
(2) Resistance levels: Short-term resistance at 4136 and 4156 points are significant; tomorrow’s resistance is at 4136, which requires increased volume to break and stabilize.
(3) Operating Range: This week, the index is within 4050-4136 points, choosing direction accordingly.

1.3 Trading Volume and Operation Guidelines
(1) Before 10 AM tomorrow, the market must close green and actively trade over 100 billion early in the session to stabilize above 4136.
(2) If volume shrinks and cannot break through 4136, it is recommended to reduce holdings in stocks that haven’t hit the daily limit up.
(3) Valid break below 4050 with shrinking volume indicates market divergence and potential decline; only suitable for identifying high-recognition stocks in groups, with sector effects minimized.
(4) No long-term risk, but short-term uncertainties exist; wait for clear signs of strength before making decisions.

2 Overall Trading Strategy

2.1 Core Trading Mindset
(1) Use arbitrage thinking, betting on unexpected targets, and sell short the day after.
(2) Trading volume below 25 trillion indicates a “fan” market; follow contrarian logic: focus on first boards with unexpected strength after adjustments, avoid chasing after big gains.
(3) When trading volume stays above 25 trillion, operational tolerance increases.

2.2 Stock Selection and Risk Control Rules
(1) Avoid stocks with 10-day gains of 100% or 30-day gains of 200% to prevent regulatory triggers causing rushes.
(2) Prioritize stocks with unexpected first boards after correction, or stocks hitting new highs with no resistance on the left side, indicating strong trends.
(3) Operation is more difficult; if criteria are not met, consider holding cash.

2.3 Definition of Unexpected Targets
Core stocks with unexpected rapid limit-ups, no more than 3-5 per day.

3 Sector Rebound Conditions

3.1 Petrochemical and Natural Gas
(1) This sector has been adjusting continuously; there are arbitrage opportunities for rebounds this week.
(2) If unable to sustain limit-up rebounds tomorrow, high chasing funds may cash out; left-side resistance and trapped positions are flaws for the sector.

3.2 Chemical Sector
(1) Sanfangxiang: Top one-word limit, over 500 million.
(2) Chitianhua: Before 9:45, 2 out of 3 stocks advance, no further decline.
(3) Jinniu Chemical: Before 9:45, quick weak-to-strong reversal with limit-up, no further decline.
(4) Complete 4321 structure before 9:45, sector can rebound.

3.3 Marine Economy
Tomorrow needs 2-3 stocks to advance with 1-2 breakout, otherwise prone to divergence.

3.4 Cross-border Payments
(1) Zhongyou Capital: Within 15 minutes, upgrade from 1 to 2, with large orders over 2.8 billion hitting limit-up; no further decline.
(2) Hailian Jinhui: Exceed expectations within 10 minutes, limit-up with a strong rebound; no further decline.

3.5 Chip Sector
(1) Expect normal divergence tomorrow; Yaxiang Integration hits one-word limit-up, over 800 million, and no further decline, which can reduce divergence.
(2) Suitable for swing trading; focus on trend stocks like Demingli, but chasing high is less cost-effective.

3.6 Power and Computing Electricity Collaboration

3.6.1 Power Sector
(1) Huadian Energy: Within 15 minutes, weak-to-strong reversal with limit-up, no further decline.
(2) Shun Na Shares: Within 15 minutes, weak-to-strong, 1 to 2, no further decline.
(3) GCL System Integration / Jinkai New Energy: One hits limit-up within 15 minutes after weak-to-strong, others no further decline.
(4) China Energy Construction / China Electric Power: Before 10 AM, stabilize in red, no further decline.

3.6.2 Computing Power Collaboration Sector
(1) Yunnan Energy Holding: Stabilize in red within 15 minutes, avoid deep water or limit-down.
(2) GCL System Integration / Jinkai New Energy: One hits limit-up within 15 minutes after weak-to-strong, others no further decline.
(3) China Energy Construction / China Electric Power: Before 10 AM, stabilize in red, no further decline.

3.7 Wind Power Sector
(1) Xihua Technology: Within 15 minutes, weak-to-strong, 2 to 3 stocks, no further decline.
(2) Dajin Heavy Industry: Before 9:45, rebound with limit-up, no further decline.
(3) Goldwind Technology: Limit-up within 15 minutes is a plus.

3.8 Optical Communication Sector
(1) Farsight: Before 9:45, 3 to 4 stocks advance, after success, focus on second wave of unexpected first boards.
(2) Changfei Optical Fiber / Huagong Technology: One hits limit-up around 10 AM, others stabilize in red without further decline.

4 Other Important Tips

4.1 Core Market Features
(1) Popular sectors have funds involved; stocks reaching new 100-day highs with no resistance on the left are concentrated in the above sectors.
(2) When only some sector conditions are met, internal divergence and random movements occur; core logic is price increases.

4.2 Market Height Observation
This week is a key node for breaking the 5-board limit, with the current market’s highest being 3 boards; breaking this indicates large-scale sector rebound, otherwise the trend ends.