Whale Selling Pressure Squeezes Bitcoin; PCE Data Key to Rebound

According to recent analysis by the on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has been underperforming among mainstream risk assets. The underlying reason points to continuous large-scale selling by whales, creating significant downward pressure. Data from the platform shows that Bitcoin ETFs have retreated by over $5.1 billion from their all-time highs, and large holders have been consistently reducing their holdings since October, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for the price.

Whale Selling and Capital Shift Lead to Bitcoin’s Dilemma

Although the overall risk asset market is performing strongly, Bitcoin faces unique structural pressures. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $74,770, about 40% below its all-time high of $126,080. In contrast, the S&P 500 is only 1% below its historical peak, and the Nasdaq is about 3% below its all-time high. This stark contrast highlights—tech stocks are soaring amid the AI boom, while Bitcoin struggles to break through.

More notably, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has been weakening since August, reflecting a decline in the influence of traditional risk asset logic on Bitcoin. This suggests that Bitcoin’s performance is no longer entirely following tech stocks but is being impacted by independent market forces.

Safe-Haven Assets Surge as Gold and Silver Hit New Highs

While large holders continue to sell Bitcoin, institutional funds and risk-averse investors are quietly shifting toward traditional safe-haven assets. Gold prices are currently about 25% above their 200-day moving average, and silver has surpassed its moving average by 45%. This indicates that precious metals are experiencing a significant upward cycle. In fact, silver’s current price is approaching the all-time high set during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, reflecting market concerns over economic uncertainty.

This capital flow shift reveals subtle changes in investor sentiment—amid uncertain inflation and economic outlooks, risk aversion is intensifying. The traditional safe-haven qualities of gold and silver make them the preferred destinations for institutional funds.

PCE Data Release as a Key Turning Point for Bitcoin’s Rebound

CryptoQuant points out that Bitcoin’s future performance may hinge on a key economic indicator—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, its trajectory will directly influence market expectations regarding monetary policy.

If the PCE data shows a moderate increase, it could reinforce expectations of a potential shift toward easing by the Fed, providing upward momentum for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, persistently high PCE figures would prolong tightening expectations, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets and exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin.

In other words, the release of PCE data will serve as a critical inflection point for short-term market direction. This economic indicator not only affects the outlook for gold, silver, and other safe havens but also determines whether Bitcoin can break free from its current predicament and experience a substantial rebound. The market is now awaiting this key signal to readjust asset allocation strategies.