First-tier city real estate market shows signs of recovery; industry expects improved sentiment in March

On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the “Housing Price Changes in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in February 2026.” Data shows that in February 2026, the month-on-month decline in the sale prices of commercial residential properties in these cities continued to narrow. Among the 70 cities, 10 saw an increase in new residential sales prices, 7 remained flat, totaling a net increase of 9 cities compared to the previous month.

Breaking the Single-sided Downward Trend

Clear Signs of Recovery in First-Tier City Real Estate Markets

In February, the month-on-month sales price of new commercial residential properties in first-tier cities remained flat after a 0.3% decline in the previous month. Beijing and Shanghai both rose by 0.2%, Guangzhou remained unchanged, and Shenzhen declined by 0.3%. The second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, narrowing the decline by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.5% and 0.4%.

The flat month-on-month change in new residential sales prices has broken the previous multi-month downward trend, clearly indicating signs of recovery in the first-tier city real estate markets. Zhang Bo, President of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out that this is mainly driven by policy easing, especially the targeted relaxation policies in Beijing and Shanghai, which have formed a supportive force, effectively activating rigid and improvement-driven demand. The prices of new homes with areas over 144 square meters in these two cities performed notably, further confirming the supportive role of improved demand for prices.

As the only first-tier city where the month-on-month sales price of new commercial residential properties declined, “Shenzhen’s decline is due to the concentration of rigid demand in peripheral areas before the Spring Festival, combined with a slowdown in new project launches during the holiday, leading to a longer inventory clearance cycle, which had to be driven by price adjustments. Additionally, the downward trend in second-hand home prices has diverted customers from new homes, which is also an important factor,” Zhang further analyzed.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in February, the year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities was 2.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, Shanghai rose by 4.2%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen declined by 2.3%, 5.1%, and 5.5%, respectively. The second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, the same as the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen declined by 8.4%, 6.2%, 8.5%, and 7.1%, respectively.

Policy Effects Continue to Spread

Industry Outlook Expected to Improve in March

Along with first-tier cities, core second-tier cities are showing signs of recovery driven by improved products. Data indicates that in February, the month-on-month sales prices of new residential properties in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, both narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. The second-hand residential sales prices in these cities decreased by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, also narrowing by 0.1 percentage points.

Notably, core cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta led the price increases. Nanjing and Hangzhou both saw month-on-month rises in new residential sales prices. Ningbo, Hefei, Xuzhou, and Wenzhou experienced flat prices. Additionally, Hangzhou and Hefei ranked among the top three cities with the highest year-on-year growth in new residential sales prices, at 2.7 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points, respectively.

However, market segmentation persists. Taking Changchun and Dalian as examples, Zhang noted that based on Anjuke’s online housing search trends, the improvement demand in Changchun’s real estate market is increasingly focused on “Fourth-Generation Homes” and “Green Technology Homes,” but the supply of such quality projects remains limited. In Dalian, high-quality improved housing is scarce in the core areas, while demand in peripheral areas is concentrated, leading to a mismatch between supply and demand and resulting in price divergence.

Overall, Zhang believes that the housing price data from 70 large and medium-sized cities in February sends clear positive signals. The market shows signs of structural recovery, reflecting an increasing match between supply and demand, and a further strengthening of the stable and improving trend. Looking ahead, as policy effects continue to spread, industry outlooks in March are expected to improve, with core city housing prices likely to see moderate recovery. The “small spring rebound” is worth looking forward to.

(Edited by: Wen Jing)