# Kondratieff Cycle: The Recurrence of Human Nature



The 50-year Kondratieff wave is essentially a pendulum of human nature. During prosperity, everyone believes "this time is different"—technological revolution swells the middle class, greed sends leverage soaring. When recession arrives, bubbles burst, stagflation, unemployment, and collapse hit simultaneously. Depression is cruelest: society de-leverages amid fear, infrastructure ages, spirits die, and "the world is ending" becomes consensus. What drives recovery? New Deal policies, war, new technology—essentially, rebuilding consensus after rupture.

History teaches us: making money follows the cycle, but most people add leverage during greed and miss opportunities during fear.

The cycle never lies. Human nature does.
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