Meteoras MET Token: Fair Valuation in the Launchpad Boom

As Meteora launches its long-awaited MET token, investors face the key question: What is a truly justified MET value? The answer requires examining overall market dynamics, Meteora’s strategic position, and a comparative valuation analysis with established DEX platforms. In this valuation study, we will systematically outline the realistic price range for the MET token.

Market Dynamics Before Meteora Launch

At the time of the MET launch, the crypto markets are in a differentiated state. During the first week of trading, Bitcoin increased about 7% from the previous week’s low, while the launchpad sector gained disproportionately. Conversely, the AI sector posted losses, indicating a rotation into structural trends.

The overall picture is also influenced by the October liquidation event, which caused significant market uncertainty. ETF capital flows remain volatile: BTC ETFs experienced outflows in the double-digit millions, while ETH ETFs withdrew over $100 million. However, Solana ETFs showed relative strength with inflows, which is a positive sign for the Solana ecosystem—Meteora’s home.

This market environment provides the context for Meteora’s launch valuation: a launchpad project launched now benefits from sector momentum but must also perform in a volatile macro environment.

Meteora’s Strategy: From Mercurial Heritage to Jupiter Integration

Meteora was established in February 2023 as a successor to the Mercurial Finance protocol. The team behind Solana’s largest DEX aggregator, Jupiter, decided to revamp Mercurial—mainly because significant MER token holdings were tied to FTX/Alameda, necessitating a reset with a new governance token.

The new model maintains continuity: 20% of MET tokens go to Mercurial stakeholders, with 15% directly to existing holders and 5% reserved strategically. An active rewards program since January 2024 distributes 15% of the total supply continuously.

At launch, 48% of the MET supply will be in circulation—high compared to similar Solana tokens. Initial liquidity will be provided via a dynamic AMM pool with a starting price of $0.50 and liquidity spread up to a valuation of $7.5 billion.

A key strategic feature is Meteora’s vertical integration: the team uses Jupiter as the primary distribution channel and has partnered since August 2024 with launchpad platforms like Moonshot, Believe, BAGS, and Jup Studio. These partnerships generated weekly launchpad revenues between $200,000 and $800,000 in recent weeks.

Comparing MET Value: Raydium and Orca as Valuation Benchmarks

To determine a fair MET value, a multiplier analysis with comparable DEX protocols is essential. The most relevant comparables are Raydium (RAY) and Orca (ORCA)—both operate within the Solana ecosystem and are structurally similar.

The multiplier analysis reveals interesting patterns: ORCA has been consistently valued over multiple periods with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 6x. RAY, however, has traded at higher multiples in recent months—its P/S ratio rose to an average of 9x, despite declining revenues. This divergence reflects differing market expectations regarding growth potential.

The median multiplier over 2025 for both tokens is around 9x, with regional variations being significant. While ORCA shows relative stability at lower multiples, RAY demonstrates higher volatility and premium valuations during periods of elevated expectations.

The Fair Valuation Range for MET

Meteora’s 30-day annualized revenue ranges between $75 million and $115 million, depending on the observed period. This range results from volatile launch activity and memecoin pool dynamics—over 90% of revenues come from memecoin liquidity pools, which structurally generate higher fees than SOL, stablecoin, or LST pools.

Applying the multiplier model:

Using a multiplier range of 6x to 10x, the following valuation scenarios for Meteora’s MET emerge:

• Conservative scenario (6x, $75M revenue): $450 million valuation
• Base case (8x, $90M revenue): $720 million
• Bull case (10x, $115M revenue): $1.15 billion
• Aggressive case (10x, $115M revenue): up to $4.5–$11 billion*

*Note: Scenarios exceeding $10 billion for MET require substantial revenue growth or premium multipliers.

The likely trading range for MET post-launch should be between $4.5 billion and $11 billion, based on historical behavior of comparable DEX tokens. Valuations over $10 billion are ambitious relative to RAY and ORCA and would require proven revenue acceleration.

Risks and Limitations of the Valuation Analysis

DEX protocols inherently have limited moat effects, as they do not hold proprietary front-end monopolies. This was exemplified when Raydium lost significant trading volume share after PumpSwap redirected its token launch flow to an alternative AMM. Meteora’s vertical integration strategy via Jupiter and its launchpad alliances aims to mitigate this risk.

Additionally, a valuation exceeding $20 billion would seem exaggerated compared to RAY and ORCA unless the protocol demonstrates substantial growth acceleration.

Conclusion: Contextualizing the MET Value

The fair MET value is primarily determined by Meteora’s competitiveness in the DEX market, the effectiveness of its Jupiter integration, and the stability of its revenue base. The multiplier analysis suggests a realistic valuation range of $4.5 billion to $11 billion, with sub-$6 billion considered attractive and over $10 billion as ambitious.

Investors should focus on how quickly Meteora can grow its revenue after launch. The answer to this will be decisive for the MET valuation over the coming quarters.