Caution on US Market Events: How Bitcoin and Ethereum Will Be Affected This Period

Crypto traders should be cautious in the coming weeks due to a combination of significant US macroeconomic events and thin market liquidity. The convergence of these two factors could lead to exaggerated price movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum, even if the changes are only temporary.

Why Caution Is Warranted in Low Liquidity Conditions

The crypto markets are entering the end of the year with very low trading volume. Under these conditions, even small economic surprises can cause large price swings. The 24/7 nature of the cryptocurrency market means there’s no rest, and each major announcement can result in significant moves due to a lack of buyers and sellers spread across limited liquidity.

Historical patterns show that during holiday seasons, even minor data surprises often trigger exaggerated market reactions. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility beyond normal trading conditions.

Federal Reserve Policy Minutes and Labor Market Signals

Two key events are on the market’s radar. On December 30, the Federal Reserve released the official minutes from their latest policy meeting. Traders are focusing on hints regarding the timing and pace of potential interest rate adjustments for the upcoming year.

Any change in tone from the Fed’s messaging will directly impact risk appetite, including cryptocurrencies. A dovish tone (favorable for borrowers) is expected to open the market for gains, while a hawkish tone (unfavorable for borrowers) could pressure risk assets.

The following day, Initial Jobless Claims data provided new insights into the US labor market. Weaker claims could reinforce expectations of lower interest rates, while stronger data might dampen optimism and cause short-term market pressure.

Technical Levels to Watch for Bitcoin and Ethereum

For Bitcoin, the critical focus remains on whether the price stays above the $89,500–$90,000 support zone amid uncertainty. If the market reacts positively to economic data, BTC could rise toward $90,500 and attempt to reach the $93,000–$93,650 resistance area. However, if this support level fails, Bitcoin could drop toward the deeper $87,500–$88,000 zone, especially with thin liquidity.

Ethereum is expected to follow Bitcoin’s direction but with higher volatility. ETH is focused on defending the $2,900–$3,000 support level. If macro data provides positive momentum, ETH could reach the $3,200–$3,300 resistance zone, opening a bullish scenario into early 2026. Conversely, failure to hold the $2,900 level could lead to deeper corrections toward $2,700–$2,650.

Holiday Period: Increased Volatility Risks

The US stock markets closing on January 1 for New Year’s holiday will further reduce overall market liquidity. With lower trading volume, any price movement becomes more exaggerated due to fewer participants balancing supply and demand.

In this setup, macroeconomic events are more likely to cause short-term spikes in volatility rather than establish long-term trends. Traders should be selective, focusing on technical support and resistance levels while waiting for clearer signals when market liquidity normalizes in the coming week.

The key takeaway is simple: stay cautious, monitor critical price levels, and avoid making major decisions until trading conditions and market participation return to normal.