US Stocks Mixed as Iran Proposes War-End Conditions; IEA Record Reserve Release Fails to Mask Oil Market Panic

On Wednesday, Eastern Time (March 11), U.S. stocks showed mixed gains and losses with little change overall. February’s CPI was in line with expectations, marking the smallest increase in nearly five years, but it failed to boost the market. Concerns over oil supply persisted. The IEA announced a record release of 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves, while Trump attempted to downplay the threat of mines in the Strait of Hormuz and hinted again that the war would end soon, yet oil prices still rebounded.

【U.S. Stock Indices】

At the close, the Dow Jones fell 0.61% to 47,417.27; the S&P 500 declined 0.08% to 6,775.80; the Nasdaq rose 0.08% to 22,716.13. Expectations of re-inflation pressured U.S. stocks during the day, with the Dow leading the decline, while the Nasdaq barely turned positive.

Latest data shows U.S. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, core CPI up 2.5% YoY, the smallest increase in nearly five years, indicating inflation is cooling. However, conflicts in the Middle East pushed up oil, gasoline, and fertilizer costs. Citibank believes that the short-term rise in energy prices is almost certain to be reflected in March data. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s policy meeting.

Some analysts note that while February’s inflation data is on the right track, the Middle East conflict has changed the outlook. Concerns about higher and more persistent inflation have led traders to expect only one rate cut by the Fed this year. Historically, the Fed has ignored energy price shocks, but with inflation above target for nearly five years, doing so now may be more difficult.

Despite the announcement by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves—the largest in history—oil prices initially dipped but then rebounded, with both WTI and Brent crude rising over 4%. Morgan Stanley pointed out that ongoing uncertainties mean oil prices still face upward risks, which also suggests the Fed will remain cautious about cutting rates.

Additionally, analysts note that the market had anticipated the reserve release, with related reports on Tuesday evening already depressing oil prices. After the official announcement, the “bad news is out” logic drove prices higher again. Oil volatility indices also rebounded to levels near the highest since the outbreak of conflict.

Regarding the U.S.-Iran situation, according to CCTV News, President Trump on March 11 said that Iran has “almost no targets left to strike” and that U.S. military actions against Iran are “about to end.” Iran’s President Raisi on the evening of March 11 posted on social media that he reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to regional peace during calls with Russian and Pakistani leaders.

Raisi stated that the “only way” to end the current war provoked by the U.S. and Israel is to recognize Iran’s legitimate rights, pay war reparations, and have the international community provide firm guarantees against future aggression.

【U.S. Treasury Bonds】

U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.248%, and the 2-year yield at 3.661%, sensitive to Fed policy.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular stocks, Nvidia rose 0.67%, Apple fell 0.01%, Google A gained 0.54%, Google C increased 0.49%, Microsoft declined 0.22%, Amazon dropped 0.78%, TSMC rose 2.10%, Meta gained 0.12%, Tesla increased 2.15%, WuXi Semiconductor rose 0.79%, Intel gained 2.57%.

On the news front, on March 11, Meta announced the development of four new AI chips, which will support generative AI functions and content ranking systems in its applications as part of the MTIA project.

Reports indicate Amazon has expanded its euro bond issuance to a record €14.5 billion (about $16.8 billion).

On March 11, Nvidia and Nebius announced a strategic partnership to jointly develop and deploy next-generation large-scale cloud platforms for AI, planning to deploy over 5 gigawatts of computing power by the end of 2030.

【Global Indices】

In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell slightly by 0.56% to 10,354; France’s CAC 40 declined 0.19% to 8,042; Germany’s DAX dropped 1.37% to 23,640.

In Asia, the Hang Seng Index dipped 0.24% to 25,899; the China Enterprises Index fell 0.07% to 8,705; the Nikkei 225 rose 1.43% to 55,025.

【China Indices】

On March 11, overnight, the Hang Seng Tech Index futures declined 0.10%, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.77%, and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.98%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

Popular Chinese stocks: Tencent Holdings (HK) down 0.27%, Alibaba down 0.42%, Pinduoduo down 1.83%, NetEase down 2.12%, Baidu down 0.28%, Ctrip down 2.03%, Li Auto up 2.98%, Xpeng up 2.17%, NIO down 3.95%.

【Forex and Commodities】

On Wednesday, due to investor caution over escalating Middle East conflicts, the US dollar index initially fell then rose, closing up 0.34% at 99.26.

Gold prices fluctuated downward amid a strengthening dollar and expectations of rising interest rates, with spot gold ending the day down 1% at $5,143 per ounce; silver followed gold lower, with London silver down 4% to $84.74 per ounce.

Concerns over supply disruptions intensified after attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but the IEA announced a release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, causing significant intraday volatility. WTI crude fluctuated between $82 and $88, ultimately rising 6.52% to $88.89 per barrel; Brent crude gained 6.64% to $93.63 per barrel.

【Key Highlights】

U.S. Inflation Continues to Cool: February CPI Up 2.4% YoY, Core CPI Up 2.5% — Smallest in Nearly Five Years

U.S. February core inflation slowed as expected, but rising oil, gasoline, and fertilizer costs due to Middle East conflicts suggest energy prices will likely boost inflation in March data. The market broadly expects the Fed to hold rates steady next week.

Trump Says Military Action Against Iran “Almost Over” — Hints at More Strikes; Iran Warns of Long-Term Attrition

Trump announced a slight drawdown of strategic oil reserves to ease oil prices. Iran described retaliatory actions as “sequential strikes” rather than “equal retaliation,” with U.S. Navy reportedly “fleeing” Iranian waters; confirmed attacks on two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming that the U.S. and allies have no right to pass through. The UK reports three ships attacked near Iran; Macron says coordinating Strait of Hormuz escorting will take weeks, with G7 planning to release oil reserves soon; Trump does not believe Iran is mining the strait, claiming the U.S. has nearly destroyed all Iranian mines; U.S. military threats to attack the strait are seen as targeting Iranian civilian ports used for military purposes. Initial U.S. investigation suggests “friendly fire” on an Iranian school, with the White House still investigating.

IEA Approves Record Oil Reserve Release: Over Double 2022 Levels at 400 Million Barrels

Next week, the U.S. will release 172 million barrels; Germany will release nearly 20 million barrels; the UK will contribute 13.5 million barrels. French President Macron said the release will be arranged in the coming days. Japan plans to act early next week, with Prime Minister Suga announcing an initial release of about 80 million barrels of strategic reserves on March 16 to hedge supply risks and stabilize prices. Trump stated that the U.S. is working to maintain oil supply flow. The IEA’s release is expected to significantly lower oil prices, which will continue to decline, but the U.S. will not prematurely exit Iran.

Hormuz Traffic Tracking: Only 3 Oil Tankers Passed on Day 10 — LNG Ships Zero for 10 Days

According to Morgan Stanley’s daily tracking on March 10, only three oil and refined product tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz that day, with zero LNG and LPG ships, far below the normal level of about 35. The situation shows no signs of substantial easing. Saudi Aramco said east-west pipeline flows will reach maximum “within days,” potentially partially offsetting the export gap caused by the strait blockage.

Report: Apple Foldable iPhone to Launch Later This Year with iPad-Like Interface When Opened

Citing sources, media reports that Apple’s long-anticipated foldable phone will feature an internal foldable display roughly the size of an iPad mini, along with an external screen similar in size to a small iPhone. The internal display will have a wider aspect ratio, differing from the narrower screens common on current foldables, which may be a key selling point.

Nvidia Invests $2 Billion in AI Cloud Company Nebius to Build AI Data Center

Nvidia is increasing AI infrastructure investments, injecting $2 billion into Dutch cloud provider Nebius to jointly build an AI data center, planning to deploy over 5 GW of computing power by 2030. This is part of Nvidia’s “recycling investment” strategy, continuously funding chip buyers like CoreWeave and OpenAI to strengthen its position in the AI supply chain amid competition from Google, Amazon, and others developing their own chips. The stock of Nebius surged nearly 15% on initial news.

Meta Expands Self-Developed Chip Line: Four New Products by 2027 to Strengthen Computing Power Autonomy

Meta is accelerating its chip development, planning to launch four AI chips by the end of 2027, covering content recommendation and generative AI inference. The latest MTIA300 is in mass production, MTIA400 will be deployed soon, and two more are scheduled for 2027. Meanwhile, Meta continues multi-billion-dollar procurement agreements with Nvidia and AMD, maintaining a dual supply system of self-developed and external chips to control costs and ensure supply chain resilience.

Amazon Expands Euro Bond Issuance to €14.5 Billion

Reports indicate Amazon has expanded its euro bond issuance to a record €14.5 billion (about $16.8 billion). Previously, it was expected to raise €12.5 billion (about $14.5 billion) through its first euro bond issuance, with spreads set for bonds ranging from two to thirty-eight years.