7 trillion investment! A new round of super infrastructure projects is here

Article | Kaifeng

Large investments are quietly shifting.

01

First mention of “New Infrastructure Projects,” what signals does this send?

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will promote the construction of key areas such as power grids, computing networks, “six networks,” “AI+,” education, and healthcare. The preliminary estimate for investment this year exceeds 7 trillion yuan.

7 trillion yuan in investment brings to mind the 4 trillion yuan in 2009. Large-scale investments have always been a key tool for stabilizing the economy and a precursor to industrial upgrading.

While both are large infrastructure investments, they are at different stages, with different development priorities, industrial potential, and long-term impacts.

The 4 trillion yuan back then mainly focused on traditional infrastructure like “railways, roads, and public utilities,” which kicked off the era of county-to-highway access, city-to-high-speed rail, and a real estate boom.

This time, the 7 trillion yuan mainly targets “New Infrastructure Projects” and people’s livelihood infrastructure.

Just a few days ago, an important meeting first proposed the “implementation of super-large-scale intelligent computing clusters, compute-electric synergy, and other new infrastructure projects.”

The concept of new infrastructure has existed for some time, but elevating it to “New Infrastructure Projects” and including it in the “14th Five-Year Plan” as one of 109 major projects highlights its importance.

The core of new infrastructure lies in building the digital foundation for the digital economy and AI era, with power grids, computing networks, communication networks, and satellite internet being key.

Alongside new infrastructure, there is also people’s livelihood infrastructure, including education, healthcare, elderly care, and childcare facilities.

Investing in people rather than just physical assets is not only to address shortcomings but also a necessary move to expand domestic demand, stabilize expectations, and support fertility.

Whether it is new infrastructure or livelihood infrastructure, these are long-term projects spanning 5, 10, or even several decades.

The 7 trillion yuan investment is just the figure for this year; the entire cycle could reach hundreds of trillions, which has significant implications for the economy.

02

The end of AI is computing power; the end of computing power is electricity.

Among various new infrastructure projects, the most attention is on intelligent computing clusters and compute-electric synergy, i.e., computing power and electricity.

If the internet is the “water, electricity, and coal” of the digital economy era, then data is the “new oil” of the AI era, with computing power as the core engine and electricity as the fundamental support.

The importance of computing power is well known. The essence of AI is replacing human labor with computing power, making intelligent computing clusters the most important infrastructure in the AI era.

A few years ago, China launched the “East Data West Computing” initiative, deploying 10 major national data center clusters, focusing on the green electricity advantages in the western regions.

However, “East Data West Computing” mainly addresses data storage and AI training needs. Transmitting data over thousands of kilometers inevitably introduces latency, making it difficult to meet the high-frequency, real-time inference demands of AI.

Therefore, building super-large intelligent computing clusters in major eastern cities has become an inevitable trend.

Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are all proposing to build domestic intelligent computing clusters with 50,000 to 100,000 cards, seizing future opportunities.

The competition for computing power is not just about clusters but also about power infrastructure; power supply determines the upper limit of computing capacity.

The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030, global AI electricity consumption will more than double, approaching 1 trillion kWh, equivalent to Japan’s annual electricity usage.

In the AI era, electricity directly determines a country’s cost competitiveness in the intelligent economy.

As the world’s largest electricity consumer, China’s electricity consumption in 2025 is expected to surpass 10 trillion kWh for the first time, with nearly 40% from green energy sources like photovoltaics, wind, and hydropower.

Compared to Europe and the US, China’s renewable energy development is rapid, and it has established the largest ultra-high-voltage grid, with the most complete power manufacturing industry, giving it unique advantages.

Currently, power investment continues to increase.

The State Grid’s fixed asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase over the 13th Five-Year Plan.

There is no shortage of electricity or computing power; the key is cross-regional coordination, which is why “compute-electric synergy” is emphasized.

03

The direction of large infrastructure is changing.

In the outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan, a series of phrases like “basically completed” highlight a shift from rapid expansion to a more stable phase of traditional infrastructure.

The plan states that by 2030, the “eight vertical and eight horizontal” high-speed rail main corridors and national highway network will be basically completed, along with world-class port clusters and airport groups.

This means that after decades of rapid development, a comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network has been formed, with extensive coverage of high-speed rail, highways, ports, and airports.

Currently, about 84% of the “eight vertical and eight horizontal” high-speed rail main corridors are completed and operational, with over 50,000 km of high-speed rail, covering 97% of urban areas with populations over 500,000, and 12 provinces connecting cities via high-speed rail.

Highways now cover 99% of cities with populations over 200,000, including over 10,000 km in Guangdong, Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Guizhou.

There are nearly 3,000 berths over 10,000 tons at ports, maintaining the world’s largest scale for years, and the number of airports has reached 270, with total passenger throughput exceeding 1.5 billion, ranking among the top globally.

Therefore, whether considering local debt or demographic trends, traditional infrastructure will move away from scale expansion toward capacity enhancement and addressing shortcomings.

However, a series of key projects, especially super projects, are still in the pipeline.

Examples include the trillion-yuan Yajiang Hydropower Station, the 500-billion-yuan New Tibet-Xinjiang Railway, and billion-yuan projects like the Shanghai-Yong Cross-Sea Channel and the South-to-North Water Diversion West Line.

Transitioning from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and livelihood infrastructure will be the main investment focus over the next five years and a key factor influencing urban competitiveness.

The environment has changed, development models have shifted, investment directions are evolving, and competition patterns must adapt accordingly.