The chain reactions from this Iran war – the difficulty in restoring shipping through the #Strait of Hormuz seems much greater than many initially predicted～

You can see it from the recent changes in tanker transit numbers – shipping activity has clearly cooled down. The reason is actually straightforward: war brings not just military risks, but chain reactions in insurance, shipping safety, and various countries' energy strategies. Many tankers would rather remain idle than sail directly into a powder keg.

From a macro market perspective, the Strait of Hormuz has always been the global energy "valve." Once uncertainty appears here, oil prices, inflation expectations, and global liquidity all get affected. In other words, this isn't just a geopolitical issue – it's also a variable in financial markets～

As for whether Trump has a "miracle cure" to quickly reopen the strait? – The answer is obvious; reality may not be that simple. Geopolitics has never been a technical problem, but rather a game of strategy.

Markets are sometimes more honest than news.

If tanker numbers keep declining, it means the problem is far from over～