Bitcoin's Market Cycle Enters Middle Phase Based on On-Chain Indicators

Recent on-chain data analysis reveals important signals about Bitcoin’s current market cycle positioning. With BTC trading near $71,000 as of March 2026, technical indicators are painting a clearer picture of where we stand in the broader market cycle. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, a composite indicator measuring market sentiment has provided fresh insights into Bitcoin’s intermediate stage within its current bear market cycle.

Understanding the NUPL-MVRV Indicator and Market Cycle Signals

The NUPL-MVRV harmonic composite indicator—a metric that combines unrealized profit and loss data with market value metrics—has reached a reading of 0.33. This particular measurement is significant within the context of understanding market cycles. Historical analysis compiled by PANews suggests that previous market cycle bottoms typically formed when this indicator moved into the 0.5 range. The current reading of 0.33 reveals that this composite metric remains well above those historical floor levels, indicating we have not yet reached an extreme capitulation phase.

Current Readings Suggest Moderate Selling Pressure in Bear Market Cycle

The trajectory of the indicator points upward from lower extremes, which carries important implications for the ongoing market cycle. As the indicator rises, it reflects a transition from panic selling to more measured market behavior. This intermediate positioning within the market cycle suggests that widespread panic liquidations have become less intense than at the lows, though full stabilization has not yet been achieved. The gap between current levels (0.33) and the historical bottom zone (around 0.5) indicates that additional capitulation selling could still occur before a true market cycle reversal. Bitcoin’s current price level at $71,000 reflects this intermediate positioning, where the market cycle remains poised between further downside tests and potential stabilization phases ahead.