US inflation stable ahead of Iran shock

2 days ago

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Natalie ShermanBusiness reporter

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Bloomberg via Getty Images

Inflation in the US was stable in February, ahead of the shock to energy prices triggered by the US and Israel war in Iran.

Consumer prices rose 2.4% over the 12 months to February, the same pace as the prior month, as rising food and housing costs were offset by falling prices for other items, such as used cars.

The figures reflect prices gathered in the weeks leading up to the start of the US-Israel war in Iran, which has triggered a sharp rise in oil prices that is starting to feed into other areas.

The average cost of a gallon of car fuel in the US jumped past $3.50 (£2.61) on Tuesday to the highest level since 2024.

Analysts say the situation could push the inflation rate back above 3% in the coming months, raising uncertainty about whether the US central bank will cut interest rates anytime soon.

The Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs sharply in 2022, aiming to slow the economy and ease the pressures that had sent prices soaring.

While the inflation rate has dropped back, it has remained above the Fed’s 2% target since 2021.

Wednesday’s report offers “some reassurance” that inflation prices had not been moving in the wrong direction, said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, warning that it would nonetheless be seen as “something of a historical artefact”.

“With oil prices up roughly $30 in recent weeks - and potentially heading toward triple digits - investors are far more focused on how the conflict feeds into inflation over the months ahead,” she said.

The Fed typically hesitates to respond to price spikes caused by changes in energy prices, which are known for being bumpy, but she said the persistent overshoot might make that “harder to do this time”.

US economy

Inflation