$XAU ‌2026 Market: A Slow Bull Pattern Amid High-Level Fluctuations

Currently, gold prices are at historic highs, with short-term potential for fluctuations and corrections. However, the medium to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, driven by four main factors:
First, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with declining real interest rates continuing to enhance gold's relative returns. The high negative correlation with the actual U.S. Treasury yield of -0.89 indicates that an easing cycle is favorable for gold prices;
Second, the acceleration of de-dollarization trends, with diversification in global trade and reserve systems, making gold's non-U.S. asset status increasingly scarce;
Third, central banks' gold purchases providing support, with monthly gold purchase volumes remaining high, forming sustained buying pressure;
Fourth, tightening supply and demand structure, with investment demand increasing significantly year-over-year, while mineral supply growth remains weak, further widening the gap.

Institutions generally predict that in 2026, gold prices will fluctuate at high levels and gradually rise, with a potential breakthrough above $5,000 per ounce by mid-year. In the long term, there is still room for upward movement. However, short-term risks should be watched carefully: profit-taking in the market, policy expectations fluctuating, liquidity tightening exceeding expectations, and other factors could trigger a phase of price correction.