Current Market Situation: Short-term Bear Market Correction or Cyclical Bottoming?

Since Bitcoin's peak last year, the decline has approached the characteristics of a "late correction" in a classic cycle, but it has not yet entered the kind of devastating winter seen in 2018.

Mainstream institutional views remain optimistic within a cyclical framework:
Bernstein analysts believe this is a "short-term crypto bear cycle," expected to reverse within 2026 (most likely in the first half). Bitcoin is most likely to bottom around $60,000 (close to the previous cycle's high), then establish a higher low, preparing for the next "most influential cycle." They emphasize that the past two years have been an "institutional cycle," with spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management exceeding $165 billion. Panic selling by institutions is much lower than before, and miners have not experienced large-scale liquidations. This bear market feels more like "high-level digestion" rather than a total collapse.

Compass Point analysts describe the bear market as entering the "final innings." Under baseline scenarios, Bitcoin will bottom between $60,000 and $68,000 (around $65,000), as long-term holders have historically been very resolute at this price level. Unless the US stock market also turns fully bearish, it’s unlikely to fall much lower (such as an extreme scenario around $55,000).

Currently trading near $78,000, after rebounding from a recent low of $74,500–$75,000, macro pressures remain: Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Woorh's hawkish expectations delay rate cuts, the dollar strengthens, PPI inflation data exceeds expectations, ETF net outflows continue, geopolitical risks and rotation in tech stocks all add pressure, leading to risk asset stress. Weekend low liquidity amplifies volatility, with leverage long and short positions exceeding $2.5 billion.

On-chain signals are also mixed: Supply in Loss has risen above 44%, indicating increased pressure on holders; but institutions and companies (like MicroStrategy) are still gradually accumulating, and stablecoin supply contraction has not triggered panic crashes.

Different Opinions and Risk Points
Optimists: Some models suggest an average historical return of 14.3% in February; if the Fed pauses tightening and ETF outflows slow, a short-term rebound to $90,000–$98,000 is possible, even testing $100,000.

Pessimists: If prices break below $74,000, it could confirm a deeper bear market. Some analysts predict a short-term bottom at $70,000, with extreme forecasts as low as $40,000 (based on past 70-80% retracement patterns). On X, some directly mention "sub-32k doom," but this is an extreme emotional outburst.

Neutral Consensus: Most institutions still see $60,000 as a key floor rather than an immediate collapse target. The current phase resembles "shakeout + accumulation," with weak hands exiting and strong hands buying low.

Cycle Perspective: The market expects the crypto bear cycle to reverse around 2026, with Bitcoin possibly bottoming in the $60,000 range.

In summary, mainstream voices in 2026 see it as the "bottoming year + reversal year," with around $60,000 possibly being the major low. Don’t let short-term fluctuations ruin your mindset—breaking below $70,000 can be a good entry point in stages!