Trump has wielded the national emergency as a powerful tool again. This time, he bypassed Congress and directly used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose comprehensive tariffs, targeting countries that provide oil to Cuba. This is indeed a heavy blow to the financial markets. 1. Normalization of policy weapons and increased market unpredictability The state of emergency has become a regular tool of the current government (it was used against Greenland and Venezuela earlier this month). Coupled with Trump's QE plan that previously bought $200 billion in MBS, he also wants to put his hand into the Fed's plate. Through the powerful intervention of administrative forces in financial markets, investors are worried about this unpredictability. I don't know if he will suddenly announce tariffs on the entire continent tomorrow because of a small geopolitical matter. Cryptocurrencies now behave more like risk assets than digital gold in the face of this geopolitical emergency. This extreme administrative measure of deglobalization is forcing the entire crypto market to complete a painful repricing. 2. The current macro situation is that globalization is further collapsing due to the global supply chain risks caused by the frequent use of IEEPA emergencies. The tax cut dividends brought about by the super bill OBBBA have weakened, the government's fiscal deficit has widened, and U.S. debt has been under pressure. Geopolitically, the change of control in Venezuela + the Cuban blockade led to a sharp shock in the energy market. Rising geopolitical risk premiums in the Western Hemisphere have led to a rise in gold and silver, and investors have been extremely risk-averse. 3. This year's severe challenges and political games Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term expires in May this year, and Trump has recently expressed his dissatisfaction with the Fed in public, accusing it of not cooperating with his interest rate cut agenda. The market fears that the next Fed chairman will be completely reduced to an administrative tool. This uncertainty has led to abnormal fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, which have already damaged the long-term credit of U.S. Treasuries. Inflationary pressures caused by tariffs require the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged to prevent inflation from rising, but the market crash and economic slowdown require interest rate cuts, and monetary policy is in a dilemma. The current market pricing logic has moved away from traditional economic fundamentals, but is looking at Trump's crazy signals at any time or real-time executive orders from the White House. In the short term, financial markets are expected to continue to absorb this risk premium caused by political uncertainty. Key observations next: - Supreme Court: Will step in to limit the president's abuse of IEEPA tariffs? - February Economic Data: If the NFP weakens further and CPI rebounds due to tariffs, stagflation will turn from a concern to a reality.