Elon Musk predicts that AI will surpass human intelligence this year

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Elon Musk predicts AI will surpass human intelligence this year Original Link: Elon Musk said that artificial intelligence could surpass human intelligence as early as this year, arguing that progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) is accelerating faster than humanity is prepared to keep up.

The comments from Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI CEO occurred during a broad conversation with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“I think we could have an AI smarter than any human by the end of this year,” Musk said. “At most, by next year.” He added that around 2030 or 2031, AI could become “smarter than all of humanity combined.”

Musk’s statements place him among a growing group of tech CEOs who claim that AGI will arrive in a few years, not decades, raising concerns about disruption in the job market, governance, and economic concentration. He said that the economic impact of AI will depend less on software alone and more on the deployment of humanoid robots capable of performing physical work at scale.

“If you have an omnipresent AI that is essentially free or nearly so, and omnipresent robotics, then there will be an explosion in the global economy,” he stated.

Musk also reiterated his vision that humanoid robots will eventually outnumber humans.

“My forecast, in the benign future scenario, is that we will create so many robots and AIs that they will meet all human needs,” Musk said.

Tesla, Musk added, has already begun using early versions of its humanoid robot Optimus in factories, where they are performing simple tasks, with more complex tasks planned by the end of 2026. The company also plans to sell humanoid robots to the public by the end of next year, according to Musk, once safety and reliability goals are achieved.

Some researchers have previously questioned Musk’s timelines, citing unresolved challenges related to safety, cost, and engineering.

“Elon has a history of overly optimistic predictions about AI,” said Gary Marcus, cognitive scientist and emeritus professor of psychology and neuroscience at New York University. “It’s pure fantasy to imagine selling 200 times more humanoid robots in the short term when no one knows how to build even a single safe, reliable, and truly useful humanoid robot at this moment, at any price.”

Solar energy is the key, says Elon Musk

Musk acknowledged the risks posed by the proliferation of humanoid robots but stated that progress in AI and robotics is cumulative. The main limitation for deployment, he explained, is energy, highlighting the need to shift to solar energy.

“Solar energy is by far the largest source of energy. When you look beyond Earth, the Sun accounts for virtually 100% of all energy. The Sun makes up about 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter has about 0.1%, and everything else is irrelevant,” he said. “Even if you burned Jupiter in a thermonuclear reactor, the amount of energy produced by the Sun would still round to 100%.”

He argued that large-scale deployment of solar energy will determine the speed at which AI systems can expand; however, Musk stated that advanced AI and robotics need to be developed carefully.

“We need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics,” he said. “We don’t want to see ourselves in a James Cameron movie… ‘The Terminator.’”

Despite these concerns, Musk concluded by encouraging optimism about the future of AI and humanoid robotics.

“For quality of life, it’s actually better to err on the side of optimism,” he said, “than to be right and pessimistic.”