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A real Bitcoin supply shock doesn’t happen “because price goes up.”
It happens when BTC quietly leaves the market.
Based on this chart, ~10.2M BTC is already in self-custody.
That coin is effectively illiquid.
A true supply shock happens when:
• More BTC moves from exchanges → self-custody
• ETFs + institutions absorb new supply faster than miners can sell
• Long-term holders refuse to sell into demand
• New issuance (~450 BTC/day) gets completely soaked up
Price doesn’t cause the shock.
Illiquidity does.
When demand shows up and there’s nothing left on exchanges,
price adjusts violently — not gradually.
Supply shocks are slow…
until they’re not.