BTC Technical Outlook: Bitcoin Remains Corrective Below Key Fibonacci Resistance

Bitcoin continues to trade within a corrective structure following the rejection from the upper trend zone and the failure to hold above the $108k–$116k Fibonacci resistance cluster. The breakdown from the rising structure has shifted BTC into a neutral-to-bearish medium-term bias, with price now consolidating below major moving averages.

The recent rebound from sub-$90k levels appears corrective in nature and has so far failed to reclaim structurally important resistance.

EMA Structure (Bearish Alignment)

20 EMA: 91,748

50 EMA: 92,044

100 EMA: 95,495

200 EMA: 99,053

BTC is trading below all major EMAs, with the 20 and 50 EMA acting as immediate dynamic resistance. The 100 and 200 EMA remain well above price, reinforcing the broader bearish structure. Until price can reclaim the $95k–$99k zone, upside moves should be treated as corrective.

Fibonacci & Market Structure

0.786 Fib: 116,399

0.618 Fib: 108,766

0.5 Fib: 103,405

0.382 Fib: 98,043

0.236 Fib: 91,410

Fib 0: 80,687

BTC failed to hold above the 0.5–0.618 Fib zone, confirming a broader corrective phase. Price is currently oscillating around the 0.236 Fib near $91.4k, which is acting as a short-term pivot.

Acceptance below this level keeps downside risk active toward the $89k–$88k demand zone, while any recovery is likely to face strong selling pressure between $95k–$103k.

RSI Momentum

RSI is fluctuating between 45–55, reflecting neutral momentum. This suggests consolidation rather than trend continuation, with no clear bullish divergence present at this stage.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$92k–$94k (20/50 EMA zone)

$98k–$99k (0.382 Fib / 200 EMA)

$103k–$108k (0.5–0.618 Fib, major supply)

Support

$91.4k (0.236 Fib pivot)

$89k–$88k (range demand)

$80k–$81k (macro structural support)

RSI: 45–55 — neutral / range-bound

📌 Summary

Bitcoin remains in a corrective consolidation below all major EMAs and beneath the $95k–$99k resistance zone. While downside momentum has slowed, the broader structure remains bearish unless BTC can reclaim and hold above $103k.

Failure to hold $91k increases the probability of a move toward $89k–$88k, while a sustained recovery would require acceptance back above $98k–$103k to neutralize downside risk.

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