Market Analysis:

On January 20th, BTC and ETH, the two main mainstream cryptocurrencies, continued their weakness from the 19th. In the morning, a double shock from escalating US-EU tariff tensions and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, combined with capital siphoning from MEME coins, led to a sharp decline and approached previous support levels. The short-term bearish trend intensified, and market sentiment turned fearful.

Macroeconomic aspects:

1. Trump insisted on imposing additional tariffs on eight European countries (10% starting February 1, 2024, and 25% from June), and threatened to fully implement the "Greenland Agreement" if not reached; the EU plans to activate the "Counter-Coercion Tool" to impose retaliatory tariffs on €93 billion worth of US goods, and is even considering a "capital war" response. Global risk assets are under collective pressure, and cryptocurrencies also plunged in the morning.

2. Federal Reserve officials released hawkish signals intensively overnight, with the probability of a rate cut in Q1 2026 dropping below 30%, and the probability of a rate cut in March falling sharply to 23%. The full-year rate cut expectations have been halved; although the US dollar slightly retreated, US Treasury yields remain high, further suppressing risk asset valuations.

3. Spot gold hit a new all-time high, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven assets. The crypto market lacks incremental support, and the selling pressure on BTC/ETH spot holdings continues to grow.

Operational Suggestions:

‍Buy the dip: BTC: 91,500-91,800, ETH: 3,160-3,180, stabilize and build positions with stop-losses.

Test short positions: BTC: above 94,200, ETH: above 3,260, with light positions for testing shorts, not resistant to orders.

Special Reminder: The market is entering a period of volatility and adjustment; preserving principal is more important than pursuing profits!