Whale Garrett Jin: The current Bitcoin market is fundamentally different from 2022; it is premature to be bearish at this stage.

CoinVoice has learned that the suspected “1011 Insider Whale” Garrett Jin posted on the X platform that comparing the current Bitcoin market to 2022 is highly unprofessional. He believes that, from the perspectives of long-term price structure, macro background, investor composition, and chip distribution, there are fundamental differences between the two. He points out that the current macro environment is the opposite of the high inflation and interest rate hike cycle of 2022: the Ukraine situation is easing, CPI and risk-free rates are declining, and especially the AI technological revolution is likely to push the economy into a long-term deflation cycle. Interest rates have entered a rate-cutting phase, and central bank liquidity is returning to the financial system, defining the risk appetite behavior of capital. Since 2020, Bitcoin’s year-over-year change has shown a clear negative correlation with CPI, and under the AI-driven technological revolution, long-term deflation is a highly probable outcome. Technically, 2021-2022 was characterized by a weekly M-top structure, while 2025 is breaking out of an upward channel, which from a probability standpoint is more likely a “bear trap” before a rebound. He points out that to recreate a 2022-style bear market, conditions such as inflation shocks reoccurring, central banks restarting rate hikes or quantitative tightening, and prices decisively breaking below $80,850 must all be met. It is premature to be bearish before these conditions are fulfilled. Regarding investor structure, 2020-2022 was a high-leverage speculative market dominated by retail investors, but since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2023, long-term structural holders have entered, effectively locking in supply and significantly reducing trading velocity and volatility. Bitcoin has shifted from a historical volatility of 80-150% to a range of 30-60%, becoming a completely different asset. The current market has entered a more mature institutional era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and institutional-level volatility.