Wu's Weekly Macro Indicators and Analysis: US PCE, Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

WuSaidBlockchainW · 2026-01-18T23:48:13+00:00

This week focuses on the US November PCE and the Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Last week, US CPI and PPI data met expectations, and the US Federal Reserve's economic performance improved, but job growth remained slow. The Supreme Court postponed the ruling on Trump's tariffs case.

WuSaidBlockchainW

2026-01-18 23:48:13

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Compiled by: GaryMa Wu on Blockchain

Summary Wu Wu’s weekly macro indicators and analysis: Last week, US CPI met expectations, PPI exceeded expectations, and the US Supreme Court postponed its ruling on Trump’s tariffs case again; this week, the focus is on the US November PCE and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and economic outlook.

Last Week Review

US December unadjusted CPI annual rate 2.7%, expected 2.70%, previous 2.70%. US December unadjusted core CPI annual rate 2.6%, expected 2.70%, previous 2.60%. Core CPI was below expectations, causing US short-term interest rate futures to rise sharply due to CPI data, with traders further increasing bets on Fed rate cuts.

US November PPI monthly rate 0.2%, expected 0.2%. US November PPI annual rate 3%, the highest since July, expected 2.7%.

The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve indicates that as of January 5, 2026, out of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, 8 show slight to moderate growth, 3 are essentially flat, and 1 has slight decline, showing overall improvement compared to previous cycles. Overall employment remains stable, with companies increasingly relying on temporary staffing and filling vacancies to cope with uncertainty, and wage growth has returned to normal levels. Prices continue to rise moderately, with tariff-related cost pressures generally present; some companies are passing costs downstream, and energy and insurance costs are squeezing profits.

The US Supreme Court postponed its ruling on Trump’s tariffs case again; the next decision will be on January 21/22.

Key Events & Indicators This Week January 19

China’s 2025 full-year GDP growth rate (10:00)

The World Economic Forum’s 2026 Annual Meeting will be held from January 19 to 23 — Winter Davos

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: May announce Federal Reserve Chair candidate before or after Davos

January 20

US Q4 GDP (initial estimate) may be released

January 22

US November core PCE price index annual rate (21:30)

US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17( thousand) (21:30)

US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final (21:30)

European Central Bank releases December monetary policy meeting minutes (20:30)

January 23

Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and economic outlook report

US January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final (23:00)

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