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A Polymarket trader lost $2.36M in just 8 days.
He made 53 predictions in the past 8 days:
25 winning trades
28 losing trades
Win rate: 47.2%
👉How He Traded
Focused on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA)
Frequently traded spread markets
Bought positions mostly at 40–60¢
Very large bet sizes, often $200K to over $1M per trade
Positions were held to settlement, with no hedging or scaling
In simple terms, these were high-conviction, all-or-nothing bets.
👉Why He Lost
Winning trades usually returned +60% to +150%.
Losing trades settled at $0 (-100%).
Just two or three losing bets were enough to wipe out all prior profits.
With this risk structure, a 47.2% win rate was not sustainable.
👉Key Lesson
In prediction markets, being right is not enough.
Spread markets are high-variance, and without strict position limits,
a few wrong outcomes can destroy an entire account.
👉Takeaway
This trader wasn’t consistently wrong.
He simply allowed single outcomes to define his survival.
In prediction markets, risk management matters more than conviction.