Bitcoin's $90,000 Defense Battle: Long and Short Game Under $1.07 Billion Liquidation Pressure

On January 8, 2026, Bitcoin's price just broke below the $90,000 threshold, and a critical battle affecting $1.07 billion in long positions is unfolding.

Liquidation Data Reveals Market Fragility

According to the latest data from Coinglass, the current market is in an extremely sensitive zone:

• If it falls below $90,000: Major CEXs' total long liquidation strength reaches $1.07 billion

• If it breaks through $92,000: Total short liquidation strength is $417 million

This data exposes a serious imbalance in the current market structure—long exposure is 2.5 times that of shorts. More critically, a large number of leveraged longs are densely distributed between $92,000 and $107,000. If prices continue to decline, it could trigger chain liquidations, creating a "price footstep" effect.

BlockBeats specifically notes: The liquidation chart does not show exact contract counts but indicates the importance of each cluster based on proximity. Higher "liquidation columns" mean that when prices reach those levels, more intense liquidity shocks are likely.

Real-time Situation: $90,000 Break Confirmed

As of 14:59 today, Bitcoin officially broke below the psychological $90,000 mark, with a intraday drop of 1.5%. This breakdown is not only a key technical signal but also signals that the $1.07 billion liquidation bomb has started countdown.

Reviewing recent trends, Bitcoin had achieved five consecutive gains in early January, rebounding over 13% from December lows, briefly giving the market hope for stabilization. However, a sudden reversal in ETF fund flows delivered a harsh wake-up call to longs.

ETF Fund Flows: Institutional Sentiment Fluctuates

The US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows have shown "rollercoaster" volatility:

• January 2: BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $287.4 million in one day, a three-month high, driving total ETF net inflows to $471.3 million

• January 6: Two-day cumulative net inflow exceeded $1.16 billion

• January 8: Suddenly turned into a net outflow of $243 million

Kronos Research Chief Investment Officer Vincent Liu calls this "normalization after inflows," but Nick Ruck from LVRG Research points out that this is a typical profit-taking and rebalancing move. Such sharp fluctuations indicate growing divergence among institutional investors regarding current price levels.

Notably, in late December, BlackRock and Fidelity recorded the largest single-day outflows in history, at $72.7 million and $208.5 million respectively. At that time, concerns arose that this might signal a turning point in institutional interest, but strong inflows in early January temporarily eased worries. Now, the renewed outflows reintroduce uncertainty into the market.

Macro Background: Triple Shadows Suppress the Market

1. Unclear Federal Reserve Policy Path

The Federal Reserve's rate policy remains uncertain. Although a total of 100 basis points of rate cuts are expected in 2024, the Trump administration's plan for large-scale tariffs (10%-20%, up to 60% on China) could intensify inflation pressures, forcing the Fed to keep rates high. This uncertainty causes Bitcoin and gold—traditionally safe havens—to both experience capital outflows simultaneously.

2. Key Economic Data Approaching

The US December non-farm payroll report due on Friday is a market focus. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank, warns that strong data boosting US bond yields could directly squeeze leveraged long positions, creating a "double blow" alongside existing liquidation pressures.

3. Geopolitical Risks Escalate

The arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro has heightened global geopolitical tensions, increasing volatility in traditional financial markets. Sean Dawson, head of Derive research, notes that this event indicates "significant increase in market volatility," and the aggressive implementation of Trump's "America First" policy could generate more black swan events in the future.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels Decide Life or Death

The current technical landscape is extremely "fragile" (according to analysts), with the core range locked between $90,000 and $92,000:

• Support: $90,000 (psychological threshold + dense liquidation zone)

• Resistance: $92,000 (short liquidation trigger point)

• Risk Zone: $92,000–$107,000 (liquidation zone for over $1.07 billion in orders)

While Coinbase was upgraded by Goldman Sachs to "Buy" with a target price of $303 this week, the bank also admits that its stock price is highly sensitive to trading volume and market sentiment, classifying it as a "high beta asset"—meaning both upward and downward volatility risks are amplified.

On-chain options platform Derive's data further shows that Bitcoin trading volume has fallen to $59.5 billion, a 52% decline from previous levels, starkly contrasting the bullish atmosphere after Trump's election in November.

Market Outlook: Survival Rules in a Liquidity Wave

The market currently exhibits three main features:

4. Excessive Leverage: The comparison of $1.07 billion vs. $417 million in liquidation strength indicates market sentiment remains overly optimistic

5. Fragile Liquidity: Trading volume halved, price depth insufficient, small fluctuations could trigger large moves

6. Policy Sensitivity: Reacts sharply to Fed policies and macroeconomic data

For ordinary investors, the current environment requires:

• Tighten leverage: Avoid heavy positions in dense liquidation zones

• Monitor macro data: Keep close track of non-farm payrolls and Fed officials' speeches

• Be flexible: Prepare for dual-direction volatility; if $90,000 support fails, next support may be around $85,000

Bitcoin is on the "edge of a cliff"—downward is a $1.07 billion long liquidation abyss, upward is a $417 million short trap. Under the triple pressures of liquidity scarcity, policy uncertainty, and upcoming macro data, any breakout could trigger intense volatility.

The outcome of this $90,000 defense battle will not only determine short-term price direction but also test the resilience of the entire crypto market in 2025. Investors should stay highly alert; survival takes priority over profit.

Interactive Topic: Do you think Bitcoin can hold the $90,000 threshold? What strategies would you adopt in the current market? Share your views in the comments!

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