The US claims it will significantly increase Venezuela's oil production capacity, aiming to add hundreds of thousands of barrels per day. Sounds good, but don't be fooled by the surface numbers—this is just restarting previously shut-in capacity after lifting economic sanctions.

The key issue here is: restart ≠ rebuild. They may sound similar, but in reality, they are worlds apart.

The Orinoco heavy oil wells are particularly tricky. Once these wells are shut in for a long time, restoring them to normal operation is not so simple. Changes in the chemical environment at the bottom of the well and formation pressure can occur, and rapid restart often leads to various unpredictable problems.

So, frankly, this is not a story of industry recovery; at best, it's just dealing with the legacy of frozen capacity. The market should be cautious of overly optimistic expectations.