BTC liquidation intensity imbalance: breaking through $95,845 triggers $2.3 billion in short liquidations, but downward pressure remains stronger

According to the latest news, if Bitcoin breaks through $95,845, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $2.303 billion. Conversely, if it falls below $87,397, the long liquidation strength will reach $1.59 billion. The data reflects the current market’s subtle game—upward liquidation pressure is much greater than downward pressure, but this asymmetry may hide deeper risks.

“Asymmetrical” Signal of Liquidation Strength

Currently, BTC is trading around $91,138.62, positioned slightly above the midpoint between two key liquidation points. This position itself is quite interesting:

From the upward perspective, BTC only needs to rise about 5.2% to reach the short liquidation strength at $95,845 ($2.303 billion). From the downward perspective, BTC needs to fall about 4.1% to reach the long liquidation strength at $87,397 ($1.59 billion).

This asymmetrical distribution of liquidation strength reflects a phenomenon: the size of short positions in the market is significantly larger than long positions. Based on liquidation strength, upward liquidation pressure is 1.45 times greater than downward pressure, indicating that the market’s defense against BTC’s rise is more robust, while the “ammunition” for declines is relatively limited.

Market Sentiment Is Turning

More notably, market sentiment is shifting. According to data, the funding rates on mainstream CEXs and DEXs have already shown signs of the market turning more bearish—a key signal. Meanwhile, over the past 24 hours, CEXs have experienced a net outflow of 5,784.60 BTC, with Binance alone accounting for 4,078.82 BTC outflow, continuing a trend of withdrawal for several days.

These signals collectively point to one direction: despite larger short liquidation strength (which seems easier to trigger), market participants’ actual behavior—shifting funding rates to bearish and large withdrawals—are preparing for a decline.

Currently in a Critical Game Zone

From a technical perspective, BTC is now in a relatively balanced but slightly bearish position:

• Upward pressure: Needs to break through $2.303 billion in short liquidation strength, a level that could form significant resistance in the short term.
• Downward risk: Market sentiment and funding rates are bearish, but the downward liquidation strength is smaller ($1.59 billion), meaning the “cost” of falling is lower.
• Key range: The nearly $9,000 range between $87,397 and $95,845 is the main battleground for the current market.

Personal opinion: This mismatch—greater upward liquidation pressure but more bearish market sentiment—often indicates that the market may be brewing a directional move. When funding rates and withdrawal data both point to bearishness, even with larger upward liquidation strength, the probability of a decline is not small.

Key Follow-up Points

Next, focus on several data points:

• Whether BTC can effectively break through the short liquidation strength at $95,845.
• If the breakout fails, whether the next support can hold at $87,397.
• Whether the withdrawal sentiment on CEXs continues.
• Whether funding rates remain bearish.

Summary

The asymmetry in BTC liquidation strength (upward $2.303 billion, downward $1.59 billion) seems to point to greater upward pressure, but the actual market behavior—bearish funding rates and continuous withdrawals—are preparing for a decline. This mismatch often signals that the market is about to make a directional choice. Currently, BTC is at $91,138, not far from both key liquidation points, and the next move will directly determine whether bears or bulls will dominate.